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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| smallreceipt | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (4511–5724, n=10235) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$4.9K | $11.0M | $4.4M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #479 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (61 of 72 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Weather −3 pts, n=717 | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 37% of 4441 at avg 40¢, ROI −3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 59% (won 1% of 2641) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 32% of 88) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 3% (won 59% of 148) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 96% of 1564) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.