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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
timebrotimeBreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)70% (528–228, n=756)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)
Consensus PnL$58K$10.6M$13.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #720 + pinnedPM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus86% (30 of 35 open)72% (74 of 103 open)63% (91 of 145 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won73% of 1005 at avg 70¢, ROI +3%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 15% of 55)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)
Entries 30–50¢5% (won 43% of 54)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 62% of 352)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)
Entries 70¢ and up54% (won 89% of 544)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarkettimebrotimeBreakTheBankRN1
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $836Yes $272K—
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
—Browns $255KSteelers $5.5K
Raiders vs. Jets
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $171KJets $192
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cardinals $59KCowboys $11K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $1.1KNo $35K—
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Raiders $17KJets $400
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
—Falcons $8.6KBuccaneers $1.9K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cardinals
—Cardinals $3.0KCowboys $1.4K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $104KRaiders $2.3K
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
same side · consensus Cardinals
—Cardinals $35KCardinals $714
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $24KRaiders $1.1K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
—Jaguars $20KJaguars $643