Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Edward Winter

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Edward Winter (59%) · Edward Winter at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Alafia Ayeni43¢Edward Winter57¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Edward Winter

Consensus Traders

Edward Winter 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$273

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 57.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralEdward Winter at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Edward Winter

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alafia Ayeni43%

Edward Winter57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edward Winter10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,139

Combined PnL-$408.6

Alafia Ayeni7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,838

Combined PnL+$135.6

Edward Winter — 59%Alafia Ayeni — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Edward Winter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEdward Winter 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEdward Winter 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedEdward Winter 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Edward Winter 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Edward Winteravg 63.4¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$287.17	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
MA MadridTime	Edward Winteravg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$53.46	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
VE Venusian	Edward Winteravg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$34.31	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.8¢	$966.48	$1.0K	+$60.32	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.8¢	$634.05	$796.66	+$162.61
└ Edward Winter leg	Edward Winteravg 65¢	$332.43	$230.14	-$102.29
LI Limousin	Edward Winteravg 58.7¢	$490.55	$455.44	-$35.12	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.5¢	$514.79	$411.33	+$16.26	58% 212-156 (368)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 32¢	$266.94	$396.24	+$129.3	46% 2054-2408 (4462)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 37¢	$199.43	$202.13	+$2.7	48% 216-238 (454)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 39.9¢	$281.43	$178.94	+$11	53% 851-753 (1604)
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 39.9¢	$95.92	$110.6	+$26.91
└ Edward Winter leg	Edward Winteravg 66.6¢	$84.24	$68.33	-$15.91
RN1CTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 52¢	$137.12	$125.26	-$11.87	53% 70327-61884 (132211)
OJ ojgCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 46¢	$109.98	$109.98	+$0	51% 3973-3789 (7762)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Edward Winteravg 53¢	$66.5	$63.49	+$4.34	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Edward Winteravg 58.1¢	$49.99	$46.44	-$3.55	57% 20238-15055 (35293)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 43.4¢	$45.87	$45.07	-$0.79	53% 15545-13759 (29304)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Edward Winteravg 64¢	$33.87	$35.26	+$1.39	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
machinelearned<$100	Edward Winteravg 54¢	$34.36	$34.14	-$0.21	54% 10229-8705 (18934)
0xheavy888<$100	Edward Winteravg 66¢	$14.11	$13.36	-$0.75	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Edward Winteravg 55¢	$1.77	$2.01	+$0.24	52% 6103-5604 (11707)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 35¢	$1.54	$0.55	+$0.01	46% 33444-38932 (72376)

LightParadox

Edward Winter

Invested

$1,938.74

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$287.17

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

MadridTime

Edward Winter

Invested

$1,252.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$53.46

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Venusian

Edward Winter

Invested

$1,066.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$34.31

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$966.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$60.32

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Both legs:

Alafia Ayeni$634.0543.8¢+$162.61

Edward Winter$332.4365¢-$102.29

Limousin

Edward Winter

Invested

$490.55

Value

$455.44

PnL

-$35.12

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

thirdt1meCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$514.79

Value

$411.33

PnL

+$16.26

Record

58%

212-156 (368)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$266.94

Value

$396.24

PnL

+$129.3

Record

46%

2054-2408 (4462)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$199.43

Value

$202.13

PnL

+$2.7

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$281.43

Value

$178.94

PnL

+$11

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

Both legs:

Alafia Ayeni$95.9239.9¢+$26.91

Edward Winter$84.2466.6¢-$15.91

RN1CTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$137.12

Value

$125.26

PnL

-$11.87

Record

53%

70327-61884 (132211)

ojgCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$109.98

Value

$109.98

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3973-3789 (7762)

thestingsnake<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$66.5

Value

$63.49

PnL

+$4.34

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

BillBenter2026<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$49.99

Value

$46.44

PnL

-$3.55

Record

57%

20238-15055 (35293)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$45.87

Value

$45.07

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

15545-13759 (29304)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$33.87

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

machinelearned<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$34.36

Value

$34.14

PnL

-$0.21

Record

54%

10229-8705 (18934)

0xheavy888<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$14.11

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Edward Winter

Invested

$1.77

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

6103-5604 (11707)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

33444-38932 (72376)

Research grade

NeutralEdward Winter at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Edward Winter

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Edward Winter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEdward Winter 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEdward Winter 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedEdward Winter 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Edward Winter 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Edward Winter wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.