Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Nikoloz Basilashvili — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Nikoloz Basilashvili

BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco Passaro

Resolved Nikoloz Basilashvili. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Nikoloz Basilashvili. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Nikoloz Basilashvili 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.3K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Signal

Nikoloz Basilashvili

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nikoloz Basilashvili100%

Francesco Passaro0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikoloz Basilashvili16 traders

Total Value$60.3K

Total Shares60,297

Combined PnL+$8.5K

Francesco Passaro7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,271

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Nikoloz Basilashvili — 70%Francesco Passaro — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 85.3¢	$16.1K	$18.1K	+$2.0K	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 58.2¢	$9.1K	$11.6K	+$2.5K	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 63.8¢	$9.2K	$10.0K	+$779.67	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
RN1	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 77¢	$8.5K	$9.6K	+$1.1K	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 57.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$178.24	52% 14650-13313 (27963)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 96.8¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$693.93	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 96.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$64.8
└ Francesco Passaro leg	Francesco Passaroavg 12.4¢	$758.73	—	-$758.73
tradecraft	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 96.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$93.05	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 70.1¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$673.44	51% 2057-1996 (4053)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Francesco Passaroavg 32.7¢	$4.6K	—	$-4.6K	46% 454-541 (995)
38 38791873984189	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 74.8¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$57.65	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
EU Eulhunter	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 74.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$158.18	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
TH thestingsnake	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 88.6¢	$1.2K	$845.74	+$53.29	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
VeryLucky888CTR	Francesco Passaroavg 30.8¢	$1.2K	—	-$564.87	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 68.1¢	$57.15	$70	+$12.85	57% 19424-14372 (33796)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 67.4¢	$41.34	$38.04	+$9.58	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
nigiri99CTR	Francesco Passaroavg 33.1¢	$100.26	—	-$100.26	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 96¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	49% 2766-2913 (5679)
EF efntrick<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 66.5¢	$12.75	$19.09	+$6.35	48% 3686-3932 (7618)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 46.2¢	$13.87	—	-$13.87	59% 33219-23387 (56606)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 43.9¢	$6.58	—	-$6.58	66% 24443-12494 (36937)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 31¢	$1.55	—	-$1.55	52% 9014-8167 (17181)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 14.4¢	$14.25	—	+$6.06	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100	Nikoloz Basilashvili	—	—	+$0	— 4-0 (4)
PR prabam	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 68.1¢	$2.2K	—	+$1.0K	69% 35-16 (51)

Flaznorp

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$16,114.94

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$9,086.35

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

ferrariChampions2026

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$9,216.32

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$779.67

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

RN1

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$8,452.32

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,470.46

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$178.24

Record

52%

14650-13313 (27963)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,703.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$693.93

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

Both legs:

Nikoloz Basilashvili$1,945.296.8¢+$64.8

Francesco Passaro$758.7312.4¢-$758.73

tradecraft

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,350.45

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$93.05

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$1,576.56

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$673.44

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$4,577.13

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

46%

454-541 (995)

38791873984189

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$1,924.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$57.65

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

Eulhunter

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$1,179.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$158.18

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

thestingsnake

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$1,154.34

Value

$845.74

PnL

+$53.29

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

VeryLucky888CTR

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1,236.87

Value

—

PnL

-$564.87

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$57.15

Value

$70

PnL

+$12.85

Record

57%

19424-14372 (33796)

Pan9X<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$41.34

Value

$38.04

PnL

+$9.58

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

nigiri99CTR

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$100.26

Value

—

PnL

-$100.26

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

2766-2913 (5679)

efntrick<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$12.75

Value

$19.09

PnL

+$6.35

Record

48%

3686-3932 (7618)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$13.87

Value

—

PnL

-$13.87

Record

59%

33219-23387 (56606)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$6.58

Value

—

PnL

-$6.58

Record

66%

24443-12494 (36937)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1.55

Value

—

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$14.25

Value

—

PnL

+$6.06

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-0 (4)

prabam

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,199.8

Value

—

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

69%

35-16 (51)

Smart Money Signal

Nikoloz Basilashvili

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdae2010c...c01990

Slug

atp-basilas-passaro-2026-11-07

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $18.1K

+$2.0K

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $11.6K

+$2.5K

ferrariChampions2026

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $10.0K

+$779.67

RN1

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $9.6K

+$1.1K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $2.6K

+$178.24

6512395314597884

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$693.93

tradecraft

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $2.4K

+$93.05

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $2.3K

+$673.44

SunflowaRebuildYear

CTR

Francesco Passaro — $0

$-4.6K

38791873984189

Nikoloz Basilashvili — $1.4K

-$57.65

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