Taranto: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Kilian Feldbausch

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (50%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Carlo Alberto Caniato50¢Kilian Feldbausch50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 50.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

9 of 18 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlo Alberto Caniato50%

Kilian Feldbausch50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlo Alberto Caniato9 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,749

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Kilian Feldbausch9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,160

Combined PnL-$111.43

Carlo Alberto Caniato — 50%Kilian Feldbausch — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlo Alberto Caniato) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKilian Feldbausch 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 27.5¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$976.78	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 74.3¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$495.17	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 74.3¢	$1.0K	$708.51	-$334.46
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 46.4¢	$283.89	$302.64	-$160.72
LI LightParadoxCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 24.8¢	$731.92	$1.0K	+$273.66	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VeryLucky888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 50.6¢	$935.28	$924.67	-$1.07	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 74.5¢	$921.68	$873.87	-$47.81	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 74.5¢	$815.26	$542	-$273.26
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 16.2¢	$106.42	$331.87	+$225.45
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 28¢	$492.14	$834.49	+$342.34	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
tradecraft	Kilian Feldbauschavg 53.8¢	$806.26	$781.27	-$24.98	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
0xheavy888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.8¢	$590.55	$565.34	-$25.21	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 42.3¢	$329.44	$319.83	-$9.6	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 42.3¢	$182.54	$213.61	+$31.07
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 69.8¢	$146.9	$106.22	-$40.68
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 77.9¢	$320.24	$256.79	-$63.45	53% 828-732 (1560)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 77.9¢	$241.82	$156.8	-$85.02
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 38.8¢	$78.42	$99.99	+$21.57
TRCM	Kilian Feldbauschavg 60.9¢	$269.75	$227	-$42.75	55% 4093-3300 (7393)
nigiri99CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 47.6¢	$192.36	$199.98	+$8.6	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
LI Limousin	Kilian Feldbauschavg 56.5¢	$124.36	$111.22	-$13.13	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48¢	$88.95	$91.63	+$2.68	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 46.4¢	$50.14	$53.29	+$3.29	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTime<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.6¢	$39.17	$41.29	+$2.12	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 36.1¢	$17.8	$23.93	+$6.13	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 61¢	$22.37	$20.09	-$2.28	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PA pauleta23<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 67.3¢	$14	$10.51	-$3.49	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 54.5¢	$8.72	$8.08	-$0.64	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
RN1CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 37¢	$3.96	$5.29	+$1.34	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

VenusianCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,691.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$976.78

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,698.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$495.17

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$1,042.9774.3¢-$334.46

Carlo Alberto Caniato$283.8946.4¢-$160.72

LightParadoxCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$731.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$273.66

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VeryLucky888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$935.28

Value

$924.67

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$921.68

Value

$873.87

PnL

-$47.81

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$815.2674.5¢-$273.26

Kilian Feldbausch$106.4216.2¢+$225.45

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$492.14

Value

$834.49

PnL

+$342.34

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

tradecraft

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$806.26

Value

$781.27

PnL

-$24.98

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

0xheavy888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$590.55

Value

$565.34

PnL

-$25.21

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$329.44

Value

$319.83

PnL

-$9.6

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$182.5442.3¢+$31.07

Kilian Feldbausch$146.969.8¢-$40.68

1lovejumpARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$320.24

Value

$256.79

PnL

-$63.45

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$241.8277.9¢-$85.02

Carlo Alberto Caniato$78.4238.8¢+$21.57

TRCM

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$269.75

Value

$227

PnL

-$42.75

Record

55%

4093-3300 (7393)

nigiri99CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$192.36

Value

$199.98

PnL

+$8.6

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Limousin

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$124.36

Value

$111.22

PnL

-$13.13

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$88.95

Value

$91.63

PnL

+$2.68

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$50.14

Value

$53.29

PnL

+$3.29

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTime<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$39.17

Value

$41.29

PnL

+$2.12

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$17.8

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$6.13

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$22.37

Value

$20.09

PnL

-$2.28

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

pauleta23<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$14

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$3.49

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$8.72

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.64

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

RN1CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$3.96

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

9 of 18 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlo Alberto Caniato) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKilian Feldbausch 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.