Brisbane 3: Matthew Dellavedova vs Sebastian Gorzny

21 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Gorzny (91%) · Sebastian Gorzny at 96¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 18

Matthew Dellavedova4¢Sebastian Gorzny96¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Gorzny

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Gorzny 91%

Total Value

$60.8K

Combined PnL

$17.5K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 96¢

+52% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

21 of 23 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matthew Dellavedova4%

Sebastian Gorzny96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Gorzny21 traders

Total Value$60.8K

Total Shares66,848

Combined PnL+$17.5K

Matthew Dellavedova2 traders

Total Value$32.66

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$1.83

Sebastian Gorzny — 91%Matthew Dellavedova — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSebastian Gorzny 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSebastian Gorzny 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 75% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sebastian Gorznyavg 53¢	$10.2K	$18.0K	+$7.8K	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
LI Limousin	Sebastian Gorznyavg 92.4¢	$14.5K	$14.9K	+$376.24	28% 284-730 (1014)
TH thirdt1me	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49.8¢	$7.8K	$12.8K	+$5.4K	42% 94-132 (226)
RN1	Sebastian Gorznyavg 52.8¢	$3.1K	$4.3K	+$1.2K	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
FL Flaznorp	Sebastian Gorznyavg 63.8¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$625.66	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
65 6512395314597884	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$695	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Gorznyavg 66.6¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$408.01	20% 93-362 (455)
38 38791873984189	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$995.5	48% 947-1017 (1964)
LI LightParadox	Sebastian Gorznyavg 84.3¢	$1.4K	$898.84	-$507.1	28% 274-715 (989)
dips.	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$240.48	$478.46	+$237.98	42% 230-315 (545)
SU suitcase6628	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$240	$467.25	+$227.25	65% 175-96 (271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sebastian Gorznyavg 74.5¢	$425.28	$423.55	-$1.72	56% 3819-2985 (6804)
VE Venusian	Sebastian Gorznyavg 79.9¢	$328.61	$384.55	+$55.94	28% 278-729 (1007)
MA MadridTime	Sebastian Gorznyavg 89.5¢	$451.06	$314.31	-$136.75	28% 278-703 (981)
BA babybells	Sebastian Gorznyavg 52.8¢	$162.54	$209.95	+$120.31	20% 100-388 (488)
TRCM	Sebastian Gorznyavg 95¢	$200.74	$203.9	+$3.17	10% 45-424 (469)
alpheclabs2	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$184.8	$196.35	+$11.55	45% 86-104 (190)
machinelearned<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50.3¢	$52.8	$53.55	+$0.75	37% 395-676 (1071)
OJ ojg<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49¢	$20.83	$38.73	+$17.9	41% 106-154 (260)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 44¢	$22	$24.5	+$2.5	49% 443-470 (913)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 52¢	$12.84	$12.59	-$0.25	39% 233-357 (590)
PA pauleta23<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 97¢	$10	$9.95	-$0.05	25% 147-446 (593)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 53¢	$8.83	$8.16	-$0.67	18% 132-591 (723)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$10,173.18

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

Limousin

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$14,549.19

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$376.24

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

thirdt1me

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$7,810.51

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

42%

94-132 (226)

RN1

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$3,123.6

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Flaznorp

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$1,559.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$625.66

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

6512395314597884

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$1,420

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$695

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$1,261.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$408.01

Record

20%

93-362 (455)

38791873984189

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$1,143.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$995.5

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

LightParadox

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$1,405.94

Value

$898.84

PnL

-$507.1

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

dips.

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$240.48

Value

$478.46

PnL

+$237.98

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

suitcase6628

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$240

Value

$467.25

PnL

+$227.25

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$425.28

Value

$423.55

PnL

-$1.72

Record

56%

3819-2985 (6804)

Venusian

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$328.61

Value

$384.55

PnL

+$55.94

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

MadridTime

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$451.06

Value

$314.31

PnL

-$136.75

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

babybells

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$162.54

Value

$209.95

PnL

+$120.31

Record

20%

100-388 (488)

TRCM

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$200.74

Value

$203.9

PnL

+$3.17

Record

10%

45-424 (469)

alpheclabs2

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$184.8

Value

$196.35

PnL

+$11.55

Record

45%

86-104 (190)

machinelearned<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$52.8

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$0.75

Record

37%

395-676 (1071)

ojg<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$20.83

Value

$38.73

PnL

+$17.9

Record

41%

106-154 (260)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$22

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$12.84

Value

$12.59

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

233-357 (590)

pauleta23<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$10

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

147-446 (593)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$8.83

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.67

Record

18%

132-591 (723)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

21 of 23 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSebastian Gorzny 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSebastian Gorzny 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 75% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Gorzny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.