Monastir: Branko Djuric vs Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Tepmahc (72%) · Nicolas Tepmahc at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Branko Djuric2¢Nicolas Tepmahc98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Tepmahc

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Tepmahc 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$154.57

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 98.5¢

+26% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Tepmahc at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Branko Djuric2%

Nicolas Tepmahc99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Tepmahc13 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,958

Combined PnL+$444.58

Branko Djuric5 traders

Total Value$99.14

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$290.01

Nicolas Tepmahc — 72%Branko Djuric — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 90¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$350.84	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
LI Limousin	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 77.9¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$332.59	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 71.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$200.53	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
MA MadridTime	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 80.7¢	$509.87	$616.35	+$106.48	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
LI LightParadox	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 58.1¢	$295.34	$499.28	+$203.94	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 73.7¢	$413.44	$230.31	-$72.13	58% 231-170 (401)
└ Nicolas Tepmahc leg	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 73.7¢	$205.34	$174.06	-$59.38
└ Branko Djuric leg	Branko Djuricavg 21.7¢	$32.5	$56.25	-$12.75
TH thestingsnake	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 70.9¢	$310.44	$189.59	-$69.65	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 66¢	$58.23	$83.61	+$25.38	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
VE Venusian<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 83.7¢	$61.11	$69.45	+$8.34	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 64.7¢	$96.72	$57.53	-$39.2	56% 9021-7117 (16138)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 68.5¢	$35.58	$46.33	+$10.75	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
machinelearned<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 90.5¢	$65.57	$40.65	-$24.92	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
EF efntrick<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 34¢	$20.4	$36	+$1.2	49% 3736-3960 (7696)
TRCM<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 96.2¢	$32.71	$33.37	+$0.67	55% 4139-3333 (7472)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 49.3¢	$44.99	$30.44	-$14.55	52% 6198-5722 (11920)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 97¢	$10	$10.12	+$0.12	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Branko Djuricavg 41.5¢	$216.5	$9.66	-$206.84	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 63.2¢	$31.86	$0.93	-$30.93	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 30.3¢	$10.77	$0.59	+$1.51	56% 1995-1542 (3537)

Flaznorp

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,969.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$350.84

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

Limousin

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,257.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$332.59

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

38791873984189

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,179.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$200.53

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

MadridTime

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$509.87

Value

$616.35

PnL

+$106.48

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

LightParadox

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$295.34

Value

$499.28

PnL

+$203.94

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$413.44

Value

$230.31

PnL

-$72.13

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

Both legs:

Nicolas Tepmahc$205.3473.7¢-$59.38

Branko Djuric$32.521.7¢-$12.75

thestingsnake

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$310.44

Value

$189.59

PnL

-$69.65

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$58.23

Value

$83.61

PnL

+$25.38

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

Venusian<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$61.11

Value

$69.45

PnL

+$8.34

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$96.72

Value

$57.53

PnL

-$39.2

Record

56%

9021-7117 (16138)

Eulhunter<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$35.58

Value

$46.33

PnL

+$10.75

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

machinelearned<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$65.57

Value

$40.65

PnL

-$24.92

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

efntrick<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$20.4

Value

$36

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

3736-3960 (7696)

TRCM<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$32.71

Value

$33.37

PnL

+$0.67

Record

55%

4139-3333 (7472)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$44.99

Value

$30.44

PnL

-$14.55

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

pauleta23<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$10

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Branko Djuric

Invested

$216.5

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$206.84

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$31.86

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$30.93

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$10.77

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$1.51

Record

56%

1995-1542 (3537)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Tepmahc at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Tepmahc wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.