BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Shevchenko (50%) · Alexander Shevchenko at 66¢ · $112K held · ends Nov 15

Jacob Fearnley35¢Alexander Shevchenko65¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Shevchenko

Consensus Traders

Alexander Shevchenko 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.9K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 65.5¢

+27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 18 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jacob Fearnley35%

Alexander Shevchenko66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Shevchenko9 traders

Total Value$66.9K

Total Shares110,282

Combined PnL+$10.0K

Jacob Fearnley9 traders

Total Value$40.3K

Total Shares96,306

Combined PnL$-7.6K

Alexander Shevchenko — 50%Jacob Fearnley — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 54¢	$51.0K	$57.1K	+$6.1K	48% 120-128 (248)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 46¢	$17.0K	$14.7K	$-2.3K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
RN1CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 46.7¢	$11.1K	$8.9K	$-2.2K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 53.7¢	$10.0K	$8.3K	$-1.7K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
MA MadridTime	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 38.3¢	$3.1K	$4.8K	+$1.7K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 45¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$615.98	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
VE Venusian	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 35.9¢	$2.2K	$3.9K	+$1.7K	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 57.5¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$538.16	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 57.5¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$815.21
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$277.05
K5 k56CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 73.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$65.75	58% 902-666 (1568)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jacob Fearnleyavg 56.3¢	$3.0K	$1.9K	-$802.02	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 43.8¢	$801.01	$1.0K	+$207.01	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 31.1¢	$286	$602.65	+$316.65
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 43.8¢	$515.01	$405.37	-$109.64
TH thestingsnake	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 34.7¢	$343	$648.29	+$305.29	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55¢	$527.26	$461.47	-$65.79	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55¢	$435.29	$296.79	-$138.5
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 34.9¢	$91.97	$164.68	+$72.71
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 47¢	$480.84	$460.37	-$20.47	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 47¢	$387.07	$317.25	-$69.82
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 40.3¢	$93.77	$143.12	+$49.35
VeryLucky888	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 27.1¢	$572.88	$295.01	+$93.31	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
TRCM	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 54.5¢	$113.25	$129.88	+$16.64	55% 4093-3300 (7393)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 72¢	$55.62	$50.6	+$0.58	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 71¢	$29.4	$30	+$0.6	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47.5¢	$4.7	$5.99	+$1.29	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55¢	$4.95	$3.38	-$1.58	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 30¢	$34.5	$2.52	+$17.98	56% 1967-1522 (3489)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.42	+$0.02	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

robustmst

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$50,987.73

Value

$57.1K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

48%

120-128 (248)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$16,955.58

Value

$14.7K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

RN1CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$11,080.09

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

6512395314597884CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$9,960.38

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

MadridTime

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$3,112.67

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$5,039.83

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$615.98

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

Venusian

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$2,173.33

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$3,325.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$538.16

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Jacob Fearnley$2,233.8457.5¢-$815.21

Alexander Shevchenko$1,091.2850.6¢+$277.05

k56CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$2,027.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$65.75

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

38791873984189CTR

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$2,971.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$802.02

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$801.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$207.01

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Alexander Shevchenko$28631.1¢+$316.65

Jacob Fearnley$515.0143.8¢-$109.64

thestingsnake

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$343

Value

$648.29

PnL

+$305.29

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$527.26

Value

$461.47

PnL

-$65.79

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Jacob Fearnley$435.2955¢-$138.5

Alexander Shevchenko$91.9734.9¢+$72.71

EulhunterARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$480.84

Value

$460.37

PnL

-$20.47

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Jacob Fearnley$387.0747¢-$69.82

Alexander Shevchenko$93.7740.3¢+$49.35

VeryLucky888

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$572.88

Value

$295.01

PnL

+$93.31

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

TRCM

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$113.25

Value

$129.88

PnL

+$16.64

Record

55%

4093-3300 (7393)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$55.62

Value

$50.6

PnL

+$0.58

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

efntrickCTR<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

pauleta23<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$1.29

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$4.95

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$1.58

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

SchruteBucks<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$34.5

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$17.98

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 18 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Shevchenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.