Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Felix Gill, while the market favors Massimo Giunta (78%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Felix Gill vs Massimo Giunta

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (64%) · Felix Gill at 23¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 18

Felix Gill23¢Massimo Giunta77¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$562.05

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 22.5¢

-55% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidFelix Gill at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Massimo Giunta 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill23%

Massimo Giunta78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Gill14 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares11,625

Combined PnL+$124.7

Massimo Giunta8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,722

Combined PnL+$437.35

Felix Gill — 64%Massimo Giunta — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFelix Gill 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Felix Gillavg 51.3¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	+$119.29	52% 440-413 (853)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$1.0K	$983.92	-$28.66	61% 920-590 (1510)
VE Venusian	Massimo Giuntaavg 49.7¢	$724.1	$944.36	+$220.26	30% 371-860 (1231)
GC GC-PCTR	Felix Gillavg 51.9¢	$850.79	$869.24	+$18.45	20% 97-380 (477)
NM NM-PCTR	Felix Gillavg 51.9¢	$850.79	$869.24	+$18.45	60% 3476-2366 (5842)
TH thestingsnake	Massimo Giuntaavg 57¢	$542	$736.86	+$194.86	23% 109-368 (477)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 54.7¢	$570.81	$714.2	+$143.38	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
└ Massimo Giunta leg	Massimo Giuntaavg 54.7¢	$408.64	$548.9	+$140.27
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 26¢	$162.18	$165.3	+$3.12
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 49.5¢	$810.07	$550.29	-$259.78	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 49.5¢	$669.44	$372.19	-$297.25
└ Massimo Giunta leg	Massimo Giuntaavg 57.2¢	$140.63	$178.1	+$37.46
38 38791873984189CTR	Felix Gillavg 52.6¢	$482.51	$486.01	+$3.5	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$212	$212	+$0	14% 139-827 (966)
LI LightParadox	Massimo Giuntaavg 64.3¢	$125.59	$131.75	+$6.16	30% 367-860 (1227)
PA Pan9XCTR	Felix Gillavg 52.6¢	$114.67	$115.54	+$0.87	48% 654-703 (1357)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Felix Gillavg 27¢	$112.29	$110.21	-$2.08	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
PA pauleta23<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 64.5¢	$66.8	$76.1	+$9.3	28% 176-464 (640)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 27¢	$66.52	$67.75	+$1.23	31% 372-838 (1210)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 38.8¢	$81.53	$64.74	-$5.34	43% 109-145 (254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 42.7¢	$55.67	$53.89	-$1.79	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 50¢	$45	$45.45	+$0.45	49% 91-96 (187)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$43.63	$43.63	+$0	37% 338-564 (902)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 67.3¢	$26.9	$30.6	+$3.7	21% 129-485 (614)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 26¢	$16.9	$17.23	+$0.33	22% 116-402 (518)
LI Limousin<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 70¢	$10.84	$10.91	+$0.08	30% 368-861 (1229)
machinelearned<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 47¢	$4.7	$7.65	+$2.95	39% 472-733 (1205)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	+$0.05	31% 274-610 (884)

VeryLucky888CTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,854.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$119.29

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

darkumbreon88CTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,012.58

Value

$983.92

PnL

-$28.66

Record

61%

920-590 (1510)

Venusian

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$724.1

Value

$944.36

PnL

+$220.26

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

GC-PCTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$850.79

Value

$869.24

PnL

+$18.45

Record

20%

97-380 (477)

NM-PCTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$850.79

Value

$869.24

PnL

+$18.45

Record

60%

3476-2366 (5842)

thestingsnake

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$542

Value

$736.86

PnL

+$194.86

Record

23%

109-368 (477)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$570.81

Value

$714.2

PnL

+$143.38

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

Both legs:

Massimo Giunta$408.6454.7¢+$140.27

Felix Gill$162.1826¢+$3.12

FlaznorpARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$810.07

Value

$550.29

PnL

-$259.78

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

Both legs:

Felix Gill$669.4449.5¢-$297.25

Massimo Giunta$140.6357.2¢+$37.46

38791873984189CTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$482.51

Value

$486.01

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$212

Value

$212

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

139-827 (966)

LightParadox

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$125.59

Value

$131.75

PnL

+$6.16

Record

30%

367-860 (1227)

Pan9XCTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$114.67

Value

$115.54

PnL

+$0.87

Record

48%

654-703 (1357)

6512395314597884CTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$112.29

Value

$110.21

PnL

-$2.08

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

pauleta23<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$66.8

Value

$76.1

PnL

+$9.3

Record

28%

176-464 (640)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$66.52

Value

$67.75

PnL

+$1.23

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$81.53

Value

$64.74

PnL

-$5.34

Record

43%

109-145 (254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$55.67

Value

$53.89

PnL

-$1.79

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$45

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

91-96 (187)

sentrioCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$43.63

Value

$43.63

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

338-564 (902)

BillBenter2026<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$26.9

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$3.7

Record

21%

129-485 (614)

babybellsCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$16.9

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$0.33

Record

22%

116-402 (518)

Limousin<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$10.84

Value

$10.91

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

machinelearned<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$4.7

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$2.95

Record

39%

472-733 (1205)

ameisgoat11<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

274-610 (884)

Research grade

AvoidFelix Gill at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Massimo Giunta 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFelix Gill 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.