Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Kaylan Bigun

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Giles Hussey (42%) · Giles Hussey at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Giles Hussey>99¢Kaylan Bigun<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giles Hussey

Consensus Traders

Giles Hussey 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiles Hussey at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

8 of 19 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Giles Hussey100%

Kaylan Bigun0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giles Hussey8 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,535

Combined PnL-$698.59

Kaylan Bigun11 traders

Total Value$440

Total Shares2,165

Combined PnL-$769.7

Giles Hussey — 42%Kaylan Bigun — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Giles Husseyavg 63.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$192.9	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
VE Venusian	Giles Husseyavg 79.9¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$373.64	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI Limousin	Giles Husseyavg 89¢	$1.1K	$668.51	-$475.45	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 62¢	$505.02	$392.9	-$112.12	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 61¢	$200.6	$198.95	-$1.64
└ Kaylan Bigun leg	Kaylan Bigunavg 62¢	$304.42	$193.95	-$110.48
FL Flaznorp	Giles Husseyavg 83¢	$428.72	$370.11	-$58.62	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Giles Husseyavg 99.4¢	$276.46	$277.99	+$1.53	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kaylan Bigunavg 41.7¢	$492.59	$187.37	-$305.23	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Kaylan Bigunavg 58.7¢	$150.85	$147.75	-$3.1	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Giles Husseyavg 64.9¢	$41.48	$50.69	+$9.2	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 59.9¢	$43.21	$37.93	+$0.82	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giles Husseyavg 41¢	$51.22	$34.82	+$0.73	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Kaylan Bigunavg 55.4¢	$420.3	$30.34	-$389.96	60% 4598-3103 (7701)
RN1<$100	Giles Husseyavg 63¢	$19.3	$24.04	+$4.75	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 60¢	$17.61	$18.03	+$0.42	49% 3725-3946 (7671)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 38¢	$19.78	$14.85	-$4.94	54% 10225-8705 (18930)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 60¢	$5	$3.03	+$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.43	-$1.38	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 54.9¢	$9.33	$0.21	-$9.12	57% 20233-15052 (35285)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 38.8¢	$54.5	$0.07	-$54.43	53% 6779-5931 (12710)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 45.3¢	$2.82	$0	-$2.81	52% 6060-5587 (11647)

38791873984189

Giles Hussey

Invested

$2,098.07

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$192.9

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Venusian

Giles Hussey

Invested

$2,147.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$373.64

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Limousin

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,143.96

Value

$668.51

PnL

-$475.45

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$505.02

Value

$392.9

PnL

-$112.12

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$200.661¢-$1.64

Kaylan Bigun$304.4262¢-$110.48

Flaznorp

Giles Hussey

Invested

$428.72

Value

$370.11

PnL

-$58.62

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

xtxpleasecallme

Giles Hussey

Invested

$276.46

Value

$277.99

PnL

+$1.53

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

MadridTimeCTR

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$492.59

Value

$187.37

PnL

-$305.23

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$150.85

Value

$147.75

PnL

-$3.1

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$41.48

Value

$50.69

PnL

+$9.2

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$43.21

Value

$37.93

PnL

+$0.82

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Pan9X<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$51.22

Value

$34.82

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

thestingsnakeCTR

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$420.3

Value

$30.34

PnL

-$389.96

Record

60%

4598-3103 (7701)

RN1<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$19.3

Value

$24.04

PnL

+$4.75

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

efntrickCTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$17.61

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

3725-3946 (7671)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$19.78

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$4.94

Record

54%

10225-8705 (18930)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.38

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$9.33

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$9.12

Record

57%

20233-15052 (35285)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$54.5

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$54.43

Record

53%

6779-5931 (12710)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$2.82

Value

PnL

-$2.81

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

Research grade

NeutralGiles Hussey at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

8 of 19 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giles Hussey wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.