Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Jack Loge
10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Francesco Maestrelli (53%) · Francesco Maestrelli at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Francesco Maestrelli
19
Francesco Maestrelli 53%
1 arb excluded
$7.6K
$404.37
83.8¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralFrancesco Maestrelli at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
53% of non-arb traders are on Francesco Maestrelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Francesco Maestrelliavg 88.4¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$339.28 | 25% 203-621 (824) |
65 6512395314597884 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 80¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$298.13 | 51% 3157-3056 (6213) |
FL Flaznorp | Francesco Maestrelliavg 86.1¢ | $611.95 | $663.23 | +$51.27 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
LI Limousin | Francesco Maestrelliavg 87.9¢ | $442.74 | $486.07 | +$56.13 | 24% 201-643 (844) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 87.7¢ | $335.4 | $339.96 | +$4.56 | 56% 3777-2945 (6722) |
TH thestingsnake | Francesco Maestrelliavg 74.4¢ | $399.14 | $238.85 | +$58.41 | 15% 60-331 (391) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Francesco Maestrelliavg 67.7¢ | $160.7 | $225.66 | +$64.96 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
TH thirdt1me | Francesco Maestrelliavg 82.2¢ | $336.9 | $206.54 | +$66.24 | 34% 57-112 (169) |
 tradecraft | Francesco Maestrelliavg 68¢ | $140.5 | $191.25 | +$50.75 | 14% 93-564 (657) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Jack Logeavg 31¢ | $335.99 | $160.26 | -$161.26 | 48% 215-230 (445) |
| └ Francesco Maestrelli leg | Francesco Maestrelliavg 66.9¢ | $86.13 | $122.26 | +$36.36 | |
| └ Jack Loge leg | Jack Logeavg 31¢ | $235.62 | $38 | -$197.62 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Jack Logeavg 8.4¢ | $450.52 | $134.35 | -$316.17 | 54% 1606-1351 (2957) |
38 38791873984189 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 67¢ | $492.09 | $102.13 | +$232.75 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 25¢ | $49.5 | $9.9 | -$39.6 | 6% 27-411 (438) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 33¢ | $49.5 | $7.5 | -$42 | 56% 100-79 (179) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Jack Logeavg 5¢ | $121.16 | $3.61 | -$117.55 | 24% 202-633 (835) |
VI vibing123CTR | Jack Logeavg 33¢ | $289.41 | $1.32 | -$288.09 | 63% 1075-638 (1713) |
BA babybellsCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 27¢ | $7.04 | $1.3 | -$5.74 | 15% 65-357 (422) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 33.9¢ | $6.78 | $1 | -$5.78 | 12% 59-453 (512) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 32¢ | $2.49 | $0.39 | -$2.1 | 23% 142-486 (628) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $0.25 | -$1.05 | 24% 205-638 (843) |
Invested
$2,623.33
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$339.28
Record
25%
203-621 (824)
Invested
$1,602.5
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$298.13
Record
51%
3157-3056 (6213)
Invested
$611.95
Value
$663.23
PnL
+$51.27
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$442.74
Value
$486.07
PnL
+$56.13
Record
24%
201-643 (844)
Invested
$335.4
Value
$339.96
PnL
+$4.56
Record
56%
3777-2945 (6722)
Invested
$399.14
Value
$238.85
PnL
+$58.41
Record
15%
60-331 (391)
Invested
$160.7
Value
$225.66
PnL
+$64.96
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$336.9
Value
$206.54
PnL
+$66.24
Record
34%
57-112 (169)
tradecraftInvested
$140.5
Value
$191.25
PnL
+$50.75
Record
14%
93-564 (657)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$335.99
Value
$160.26
PnL
-$161.26
Record
48%
215-230 (445)
Both legs:
Invested
$450.52
Value
$134.35
PnL
-$316.17
Record
54%
1606-1351 (2957)
Invested
$492.09
Value
$102.13
PnL
+$232.75
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$39.6
Record
6%
27-411 (438)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$42
Record
56%
100-79 (179)
Invested
$121.16
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$117.55
Record
24%
202-633 (835)
Invested
$289.41
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$288.09
Record
63%
1075-638 (1713)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$5.74
Record
15%
65-357 (422)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$1
PnL
-$5.78
Record
12%
59-453 (512)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$2.1
Record
23%
142-486 (628)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$1.05
Record
24%
205-638 (843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
MadridTime
Francesco Maestrelli — $3.0K
6512395314597884
Francesco Maestrelli — $1.9K
Flaznorp
Francesco Maestrelli — $663.23
Limousin
Francesco Maestrelli — $486.07
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Francesco Maestrelli — $339.96
thestingsnake
Francesco Maestrelli — $238.85
omnibus-076daa
Francesco Maestrelli — $225.66
thirdt1me
Francesco Maestrelli — $206.54
tradecraft
Francesco Maestrelli — $191.25
VeryLucky888
ARBArbitrage — excluded