Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 12 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-11-07?

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 2.0¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 2¢

-96% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,300

Combined PnL+$599.76

No12 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,903

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	99% 5179-74 (5253)
LO lonmi2511	Yesavg 56¢	$682.16	$1.2K	+$478.92	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 60.7¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	$-1.4K	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$4.6K	$977.2	$-1.6K	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 62.7¢	$792.09	$852.94	+$60.86	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 36.1¢	$173.14	$473.98	+$26.94	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 62.8¢	$631.65	$336.1	-$295.55	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 98¢	$187	$186.91	+$3.65	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 87.9¢	$132.63	$134.24	+$1.61	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
dips.	Yesavg 63.8¢	$167.95	$85.91	+$17.97	47% 11022-12642 (23664)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$41.17	$37.77	+$0.75	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$61.83	$31.67	-$30.16	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$3.96	$9.99	+$6.03	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
snoopy.traderCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$8.9	$9.28	+$0.38	40% 351-527 (878)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$34	$8.04	-$25.95	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$7.22	$7.21	-$0	32% 599-1247 (1846)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$7.72	$5.22	-$2.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$4.99	+$3.04	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$74.26	$2.99	-$71.27	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$19.62	$0.78	-$18.84	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$11.82	$0.38	-$11.44	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$42.06	$0.05	-$2.39	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

pelik

Yes

Invested

$1,380.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

5179-74 (5253)

lonmi2511

Yes

Invested

$682.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$478.92

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$2,532.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$4,554.84

Value

$977.2

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$792.09

Value

$852.94

PnL

+$60.86

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$173.14

Value

$473.98

PnL

+$26.94

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$631.65

Value

$336.1

PnL

-$295.55

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$187

Value

$186.91

PnL

+$3.65

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$132.63

Value

$134.24

PnL

+$1.61

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$167.95

Value

$85.91

PnL

+$17.97

Record

47%

11022-12642 (23664)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.17

Value

$37.77

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$61.83

Value

$31.67

PnL

-$30.16

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$6.03

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

snoopy.traderCTR<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$0.38

Record

40%

351-527 (878)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$25.95

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

599-1247 (1846)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$2.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$3.04

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$74.26

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$71.27

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$18.84

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$11.44

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$42.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.39

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.