Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-11-07?

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares17,697

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares20,434

Combined PnL-$335.07

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.6¢	$6.4K	$7.8K	+$1.4K	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 30.2¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$285.14	62% 1925-1170 (3095)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 68.2¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$208.07	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$70.59	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.5¢	$777.57	$661.97	-$115.59
oieshfn345	Noavg 70¢	$702.1	$717.15	+$15.04	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$711.04	$655.49	-$55.55	49% 577-595 (1172)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$151.53	$162.43	+$10.91	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 69¢	$147.05	$152.38	+$5.33	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
Fuentes31CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$150	$147.58	-$2.42	53% 687-608 (1295)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$142.1	$139.65	-$2.45	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
GC GC-P	Noavg 67¢	$125.03	$135.3	+$10.26	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 67¢	$79.24	$80.36	+$0.56	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$74.6	$75.25	+$0.65	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 70¢	$72.87	$74.43	+$1.56	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
RN1<$100	Noavg 69¢	$71.66	$74.26	+$2.6	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 69¢	$69	$70.5	+$1.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$70.26	$70.04	-$0.22	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 69¢	$53.55	$55.49	+$1.94	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$22.72	$22.1	-$0.62	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.4	$17.3	+$2.9	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$10.35	$11.35	+$1	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$2.26	$1.06	-$1.2	66% 24445-12494 (36939)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$6,419.91

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$285.14

Record

62%

1925-1170 (3095)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,505.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$208.07

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$2,877.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$70.59

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

Both legs:

No$2,10070¢+$45

Yes$777.5733.5¢-$115.59

oieshfn345

Invested

$702.1

Value

$717.15

PnL

+$15.04

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Yes

Invested

$711.04

Value

$655.49

PnL

-$55.55

Record

49%

577-595 (1172)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.53

Value

$162.43

PnL

+$10.91

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$147.05

Value

$152.38

PnL

+$5.33

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

Fuentes31CTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$147.58

PnL

-$2.42

Record

53%

687-608 (1295)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.1

Value

$139.65

PnL

-$2.45

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

GC-P

Invested

$125.03

Value

$135.3

PnL

+$10.26

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$79.24

Value

$80.36

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$74.6

Value

$75.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$72.87

Value

$74.43

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

RN1<$100

Invested

$71.66

Value

$74.26

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$70.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.26

Value

$70.04

PnL

-$0.22

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$53.55

Value

$55.49

PnL

+$1.94

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$22.72

Value

$22.1

PnL

-$0.62

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$2.9

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.35

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.2

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.