Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Manhattan Jaspers, while the market favors Albany Great Danes (82%). 11 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Albany Great Danes vs. Manhattan Jaspers

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Manhattan Jaspers (65%) · Manhattan Jaspers at 18¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 6

Albany Great Danes82¢Manhattan Jaspers18¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Manhattan Jaspers

Consensus Traders

Manhattan Jaspers 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 18¢

-68% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidManhattan Jaspers at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manhattan Jaspers

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Albany Great Danes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Albany Great Danes82%

Manhattan Jaspers18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Albany Great Danes6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares8,811

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Manhattan Jaspers11 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares11,573

Combined PnL-$873

Albany Great Danes — 35%Manhattan Jaspers — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Manhattan Jaspers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Albany Great Danes) and the top 1000 (14 on Manhattan Jaspers) disagree here.

whaleManhattan Jaspers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrManhattan Jaspers 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlbany Great Danes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Manhattan Jaspers 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Albany Great Danesavg 41.4¢	$3.0K	$4.6K	+$1.6K	44% 69-89 (158)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 59.8¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	-$623.82	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$212.11	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
CI cigarettes	Albany Great Danesavg 46¢	$372.6	$656.11	+$283.5	53% 23655-20823 (44478)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Albany Great Danesavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$563.15	+$34.43	56% 8329-6493 (14822)
└ Albany Great Danes leg	Albany Great Danesavg 57.3¢	$314.81	$436.81	+$64.55
└ Manhattan Jaspers leg	Manhattan Jaspersavg 39.2¢	$241.56	$126.34	-$30.12
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 37.2¢	$373.87	$493.1	+$119.23	54% 3468-3007 (6475)
PainfulvoidCTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 61.2¢	$477.36	$382.2	-$95.16	54% 1858-1602 (3460)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Albany Great Danesavg 39¢	$234.32	$303.15	+$68.83	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Albany Great Danesavg 45¢	$167.99	$247.35	+$79.36	46% 1548-1827 (3375)
SE sentrioCTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 59¢	$179.21	$184.86	+$5.66	50% 25844-25552 (51396)
FO forecastication4CTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 59¢	$143.9	$119.51	-$24.39	50% 1380-1391 (2771)
38 38791873984189CTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 57.8¢	$132.09	$113.97	-$18.12	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 56.2¢	$16.08	$17.7	+$1.63	54% 522-445 (967)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 48.5¢	$49.22	$12.56	-$10.34	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 47¢	$23.5	$8.25	-$15.25	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 33.1¢	$6.62	$6.3	-$0.32	47% 10638-12166 (22804)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Albany Great Danesavg 40¢	$2	$3.2	+$0.88	52% 8780-7984 (16764)
0xheavy888<$100	Albany Great Danesavg 39¢	$2.34	$2.7	+$0.36	56% 7923-6330 (14253)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$2,950.41

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

44%

69-89 (158)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$3,458.47

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$623.82

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

FlaznorpCTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$1,743.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$212.11

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

cigarettes

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$372.6

Value

$656.11

PnL

+$283.5

Record

53%

23655-20823 (44478)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$1,316.11

Value

$563.15

PnL

+$34.43

Record

56%

8329-6493 (14822)

Both legs:

Albany Great Danes$314.8157.3¢+$64.55

Manhattan Jaspers$241.5639.2¢-$30.12

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$373.87

Value

$493.1

PnL

+$119.23

Record

54%

3468-3007 (6475)

PainfulvoidCTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$477.36

Value

$382.2

PnL

-$95.16

Record

54%

1858-1602 (3460)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$234.32

Value

$303.15

PnL

+$68.83

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$167.99

Value

$247.35

PnL

+$79.36

Record

46%

1548-1827 (3375)

sentrioCTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$179.21

Value

$184.86

PnL

+$5.66

Record

50%

25844-25552 (51396)

forecastication4CTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$143.9

Value

$119.51

PnL

-$24.39

Record

50%

1380-1391 (2771)

38791873984189CTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$132.09

Value

$113.97

PnL

-$18.12

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$16.08

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$1.63

Record

54%

522-445 (967)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$49.22

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$10.34

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$23.5

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$15.25

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

dips.CTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$6.62

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

10638-12166 (22804)

ameisgoat11<$100

Albany Great Danes

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

8780-7984 (16764)

0xheavy888<$100

Albany Great Danes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.36

Record

56%

7923-6330 (14253)

Research grade

AvoidManhattan Jaspers at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Manhattan Jaspers

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Albany Great Danes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Manhattan Jaspers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Albany Great Danes) and the top 1000 (14 on Manhattan Jaspers) disagree here.

whaleManhattan Jaspers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrManhattan Jaspers 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlbany Great Danes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Manhattan Jaspers 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manhattan Jaspers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.