Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Virginia Cavaliers

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Cavaliers (88%) · Virginia Cavaliers at 57¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 8

Arkansas Razorbacks43¢Virginia Cavaliers57¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virginia Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Virginia Cavaliers 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$311.31

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 57.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

14 of 16 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arkansas Razorbacks43%

Virginia Cavaliers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Cavaliers14 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares36,216

Combined PnL+$287.91

Arkansas Razorbacks2 traders

Total Value$440.29

Total Shares954

Combined PnL+$23.4

Virginia Cavaliers — 88%Arkansas Razorbacks — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedVirginia Cavaliers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60.9¢	$10.0K	$10.2K	+$187.91	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
IC ic4cream	Virginia Cavaliersavg 62.2¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$43.8	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
HO HomeRunHazard	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$63.82	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
IM imjustkenisghey	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$130.14	48% 491-536 (1027)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 63.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$31.97	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
└ Virginia Cavaliers leg	Virginia Cavaliersavg 63.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$130.7
└ Arkansas Razorbacks leg	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 34¢	$396.09	$494.82	+$98.73
VI vibing123	Virginia Cavaliersavg 62.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$38.89	52% 1723-1622 (3345)
SN SnakeBall	Virginia Cavaliersavg 63.7¢	$1.1K	$980.19	-$105.43	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
FL Flaznorp	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.2¢	$803.41	$875.11	+$71.7	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 36¢	$570.52	$632.64	+$62.12	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
└ Arkansas Razorbacks leg	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 36¢	$336.19	$396.41	+$60.22
└ Virginia Cavaliers leg	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57¢	$234.33	$236.23	+$1.9
0xheavy888	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60¢	$600.34	$605.25	+$4.92	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
RN1CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 38.9¢	$376.41	$403.03	+$26.62	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.9¢	$333.59	$337.13	+$3.54	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Virginia Cavaliers leg	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.9¢	$201.25	$196.52	-$4.74
└ Arkansas Razorbacks leg	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 40¢	$132.34	$140.61	+$8.27
CUTJALENHURTS	Virginia Cavaliersavg 61¢	$330.78	$336.21	+$5.42	51% 6914-6531 (13445)
VeryLucky888	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57.9¢	$305.16	$171.99	+$10.23	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrio	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57.6¢	$260.44	$154.96	+$4.87	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 44¢	$40.48	$37.26	-$3.22	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
PA Pan9X<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 62.3¢	$27.61	$24.43	-$0.78	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.7¢	$10.8	$11.05	+$0.25	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 71¢	$12.78	$10.35	-$2.43	57% 17050-13014 (30064)

nigiri99

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$10,039.61

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$187.91

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

ic4cream

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$3,950.9

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$43.8

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

HomeRunHazard

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$2,257.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$63.82

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

imjustkenisghey

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,735.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$130.14

Record

48%

491-536 (1027)

takeormakeARB<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,784.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$31.97

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

Both legs:

Virginia Cavaliers$1,388.8363.5¢-$130.7

Arkansas Razorbacks$396.0934¢+$98.73

vibing123

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,431.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$38.89

Record

52%

1723-1622 (3345)

SnakeBall

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,085.62

Value

$980.19

PnL

-$105.43

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Flaznorp

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$803.41

Value

$875.11

PnL

+$71.7

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$570.52

Value

$632.64

PnL

+$62.12

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Both legs:

Arkansas Razorbacks$336.1936¢+$60.22

Virginia Cavaliers$234.3357¢+$1.9

0xheavy888

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$600.34

Value

$605.25

PnL

+$4.92

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

RN1CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$376.41

Value

$403.03

PnL

+$26.62

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$333.59

Value

$337.13

PnL

+$3.54

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Virginia Cavaliers$201.2558.9¢-$4.74

Arkansas Razorbacks$132.3440¢+$8.27

CUTJALENHURTS

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$330.78

Value

$336.21

PnL

+$5.42

Record

51%

6914-6531 (13445)

VeryLucky888

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$305.16

Value

$171.99

PnL

+$10.23

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrio

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$260.44

Value

$154.96

PnL

+$4.87

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$40.48

Value

$37.26

PnL

-$3.22

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

Pan9X<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$27.61

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$0.78

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$12.78

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$2.43

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

14 of 16 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedVirginia Cavaliers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.