Spread: Western Michigan (-16.5)

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (83%) · Western Michigan at 74¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 11

Western Michigan74¢Akron26¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.5K

Combined PnL

$7.5K

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 73.5¢

+57% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan74%

Akron27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan15 traders

Total Value$36.8K

Total Shares58,691

Combined PnL+$9.2K

Akron3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,593

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Western Michigan — 83%Akron — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michiganavg 47.1¢	$17.0K	$22.3K	+$5.4K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888	Western Michiganavg 46.7¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$889.96	51% 300-292 (592)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Western Michiganavg 46¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$800	59% 1121-779 (1900)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 46¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	+$117.82	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$397.27
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 52.2¢	$1.0K	$749.58	-$279.45
IM imjustkenisghey	Western Michiganavg 45¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$579.49	— 3-6 (9)
BI biying88888	Western Michiganavg 47.8¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$731.1	27% 63-170 (233)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$299.51	49% 488-513 (1001)
ME metski29CTR	Akronavg 54¢	$2.7K	$1.3K	$-1.4K	0% 0-48 (48)
NM NM-P	Western Michiganavg 47.7¢	$565.98	$697.95	+$131.97	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
GC GC-P	Western Michiganavg 47.7¢	$500.5	$651	+$150.5	16% 67-351 (418)
RN1CTR	Akronavg 52.2¢	$743.44	$540.78	-$202.66	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Akronavg 49¢	$556.59	$504.81	-$51.78	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 49¢	$383.17	$300.79	-$82.38
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 52.3¢	$173.42	$204.01	+$30.59
SN SnakeBall	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$326.34	$421.52	+$95.18	48% 190-206 (396)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$188	$248	+$60	10% 88-785 (873)
MA MadridTime	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$168.28	$217.36	+$49.08	28% 279-704 (983)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Akronavg 50¢	$138.13	$134.93	+$1.76	49% 444-470 (914)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 45.8¢	$55.01	$74.52	+$20.81
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 50¢	$79.47	$60.42	-$19.05
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Akronavg 35¢	$52.92	$59.93	+$7.01	56% 488-383 (871)
GH ghorrock<$100	Western Michiganavg 46.7¢	$43.95	$50	+$12.36	54% 383-322 (705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Western Michiganavg 43¢	$7.41	$10.69	+$3.28	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Western Michiganavg 41¢	$5.74	$8.68	+$2.94	30% 134-317 (451)
RL RLWG<$100	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.1	+$0.75	68% 1599-746 (2345)

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan

Invested

$16,957.39

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888

Western Michigan

Invested

$3,241.17

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$889.96

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,300

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$800

Record

59%

1121-779 (1900)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,541.51

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$117.82

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$1,086.846¢+$397.27

Akron$1,029.0352.2¢-$279.45

imjustkenisghey

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,533.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$579.49

Record

—

3-6 (9)

biying88888

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,310.2

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$731.1

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,026.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$299.51

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

metski29CTR

Akron

Invested

$2,728.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

0-48 (48)

NM-P

Western Michigan

Invested

$565.98

Value

$697.95

PnL

+$131.97

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

GC-P

Western Michigan

Invested

$500.5

Value

$651

PnL

+$150.5

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

RN1CTR

Akron

Invested

$743.44

Value

$540.78

PnL

-$202.66

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Akron

Invested

$556.59

Value

$504.81

PnL

-$51.78

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Akron$383.1749¢-$82.38

Western Michigan$173.4252.3¢+$30.59

SnakeBall

Western Michigan

Invested

$326.34

Value

$421.52

PnL

+$95.18

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Western Michigan

Invested

$188

Value

$248

PnL

+$60

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

MadridTime

Western Michigan

Invested

$168.28

Value

$217.36

PnL

+$49.08

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Pan9XARB<$100

Akron

Invested

$138.13

Value

$134.93

PnL

+$1.76

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$55.0145.8¢+$20.81

Akron$79.4750¢-$19.05

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$52.92

Value

$59.93

PnL

+$7.01

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

ghorrock<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$43.95

Value

$50

PnL

+$12.36

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$7.41

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$3.28

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

justaluckydude<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$5.74

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$2.94

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

RLWG<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.75

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.