Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will América de Cali win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 41¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$102.42

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 40.5¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,805

Combined PnL-$432.12

No8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,949

Combined PnL+$534.55

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 41.9¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$210.84	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
dips.	Noavg 41.1¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$459.65	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 41.6¢	$920.12	$873.94	-$46.18	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 45.2¢	$911.22	$785.67	-$125.55	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 56¢	$695.57	$726.62	+$31.05	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56¢	$422.85	$441.73	+$18.88	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RN1	Noavg 54¢	$179.93	$201.59	+$21.66	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$137.5	$101.25	-$36.25	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$63.64	$58.46	-$5.18	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$24.57	$23.27	-$1.29	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 43¢	$10.75	$15.13	+$4.38	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$20	$12	-$8	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.15	$5	-$0.15	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.5¢	$4.45	$4.05	-$0.4	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 54¢	$3.15	$3.53	+$0.38	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$2.26	$2.53	+$0.26	49% 1800-1902 (3702)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,927.19

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$210.84

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dips.

Invested

$1,080.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$459.65

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$920.12

Value

$873.94

PnL

-$46.18

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$911.22

Value

$785.67

PnL

-$125.55

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$695.57

Value

$726.62

PnL

+$31.05

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$422.85

Value

$441.73

PnL

+$18.88

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RN1

Invested

$179.93

Value

$201.59

PnL

+$21.66

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.5

Value

$101.25

PnL

-$36.25

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.64

Value

$58.46

PnL

-$5.18

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$24.57

Value

$23.27

PnL

-$1.29

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10.75

Value

$15.13

PnL

+$4.38

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$12

PnL

-$8

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.4

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.