Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold EYEBALLERS, while the market favors Esport Academy Copenhagen (99%). 8 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - United21 Group B

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold EYEBALLERS (44%) · EYEBALLERS at 0.5¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Esport Academy Copenhagen>99¢EYEBALLERS<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

EYEBALLERS

Consensus Traders

EYEBALLERS 44%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$827.07

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidEYEBALLERS at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

EYEBALLERS

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Esport Academy Copenhagen 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Esport Academy Copenhagen99%

EYEBALLERS1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

EYEBALLERS8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,326

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Esport Academy Copenhagen10 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,185

Combined PnL+$999.81

EYEBALLERS — 44%Esport Academy Copenhagen — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on EYEBALLERS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on EYEBALLERS) and the top 1000 (18 on Esport Academy Copenhagen) disagree here.

whaleEYEBALLERS 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpEsport Academy Copenhagen 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrEsport Academy Copenhagen 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedEYEBALLERS 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Esport Academy Copenhagen 61% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	EYEBALLERSavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$161.5	54% 2620-2246 (4866)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	EYEBALLERSavg 63¢	$2.1K	$623.06	$-1.4K	53% 1313-1177 (2490)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 99¢	$495.16	$497	+$1.84	82% 7003-1508 (8511)
TO topdogbigboi	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 35.7¢	$233.32	$496.57	+$263.25	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 24.8¢	$115.18	$462.81	+$347.63	59% 31848-22485 (54333)
IW iWasEnough	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 30¢	$109.13	$362.11	+$257.85	51% 11897-11293 (23190)
CI cigarettesCTR	EYEBALLERSavg 66.2¢	$218.75	$207.2	-$11.55	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
38 38791873984189	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 61.2¢	$100.24	$163.27	+$63.02	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 48.6¢	$96.64	$119.8	+$23.16	64% 1221-679 (1900)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	EYEBALLERSavg 57.2¢	$112.12	$37.22	+$57.79	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 78¢	$47.19	$33.06	-$41.53	47% 9215-10335 (19550)
SH shiifoo<$100	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 27.5¢	$19.68	$29.93	+$25.02	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
PA pauleta23<$100	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 46.2¢	$10.28	$22.11	+$11.84	66% 23982-12171 (36153)
US User7429<$100	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 66.1¢	$8.6	$12.94	+$4.34	56% 8920-7126 (16046)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Esport Academy Copenhagenavg 42.4¢	$6.36	$8.22	+$1.86	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
JA JabJabichCTR	EYEBALLERSavg 55¢	$549.98	$5	-$544.98	63% 179-106 (285)
HRTradingCTR<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 58.2¢	$1.16	$0.38	-$0.78	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 92¢	$4.6	$0.03	-$4.57	35% 18059-33813 (51872)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$1,652.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$161.5

Record

54%

2620-2246 (4866)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$2,065.8

Value

$623.06

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1313-1177 (2490)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$495.16

Value

$497

PnL

+$1.84

Record

82%

7003-1508 (8511)

topdogbigboi

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$233.32

Value

$496.57

PnL

+$263.25

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$115.18

Value

$462.81

PnL

+$347.63

Record

59%

31848-22485 (54333)

iWasEnough

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$109.13

Value

$362.11

PnL

+$257.85

Record

51%

11897-11293 (23190)

cigarettesCTR

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$218.75

Value

$207.2

PnL

-$11.55

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

38791873984189

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$100.24

Value

$163.27

PnL

+$63.02

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$96.64

Value

$119.8

PnL

+$23.16

Record

64%

1221-679 (1900)

omnibus-076daaCTR

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$112.12

Value

$37.22

PnL

+$57.79

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

lryyyCTR<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$47.19

Value

$33.06

PnL

-$41.53

Record

47%

9215-10335 (19550)

shiifoo<$100

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$19.68

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$25.02

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

pauleta23<$100

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$10.28

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$11.84

Record

66%

23982-12171 (36153)

User7429<$100

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$8.6

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$4.34

Record

56%

8920-7126 (16046)

Flaznorp<$100

Esport Academy Copenhagen

Invested

$6.36

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$1.86

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

JabJabichCTR

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$549.98

Value

PnL

-$544.98

Record

63%

179-106 (285)

HRTradingCTR<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$4.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.57

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Research grade

AvoidEYEBALLERS at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

EYEBALLERS

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Esport Academy Copenhagen 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on EYEBALLERS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on EYEBALLERS) and the top 1000 (18 on Esport Academy Copenhagen) disagree here.

whaleEYEBALLERS 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpEsport Academy Copenhagen 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrEsport Academy Copenhagen 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedEYEBALLERS 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Esport Academy Copenhagen 61% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that EYEBALLERS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6048.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

6148.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.