Counter-Strike: Nexus vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (25%) · BakS eSports at 68¢ · $86K held · ends Nov 11

Nexus33¢BakS eSports67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 25%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$86.2K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 67.5¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

4 of 16 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nexus33%

BakS eSports68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports4 traders

Total Value$60.1K

Total Shares79,310

Combined PnL+$17.0K

Nexus12 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares70,275

Combined PnL$-11.7K

BakS eSports — 25%Nexus — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNexus 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNexus 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNexus 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNexus 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BakS eSportsavg 54.1¢	$34.2K	$49.0K	+$14.8K	54% 134-113 (247)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Nexusavg 45.5¢	$18.5K	$11.8K	$-6.7K	56% 382-300 (682)
FeedTheBigBird	BakS eSportsavg 55.1¢	$8.1K	$10.1K	+$2.0K	— 12-7 (19)
VI vibing123CTR	Nexusavg 46.6¢	$9.3K	$5.8K	$-3.5K	63% 1096-651 (1747)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nexusavg 43.2¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$241.83	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 43.2¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$416.45
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 59.7¢	$976.11	$1.1K	+$174.62
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 64.1¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$286.19	52% 64-60 (124)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 64.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$183.63
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 46.5¢	$1.1K	$679.16	-$469.82
PU purplegattoCTR	Nexusavg 45.6¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$585.82	69% 2586-1181 (3767)
SE sentrioCTR	Nexusavg 45.7¢	$1.4K	$997.65	-$444.65	37% 341-573 (914)
latvian.demon	BakS eSportsavg 54¢	$405	$517.5	+$112.5	6% 26-434 (460)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nexusavg 47.2¢	$600.65	$495.57	-$33.04	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 52.1¢	$220.1	$291.28	+$71.19
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 47.2¢	$311.14	$204.29	-$104.23
GO Gooooooollllllllll	BakS eSportsavg 57¢	$343.14	$415.38	+$72.24	46% 512-591 (1103)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 62.7¢	$365.66	$369.12	+$3.46	67% 56-28 (84)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 62.7¢	$255.8	$275.43	+$19.63
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 38.1¢	$109.86	$93.69	-$16.17
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Nexusavg 45.5¢	$559.6	$365.05	-$194.55	— 7-7 (14)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nexusavg 30.7¢	$238.59	$128.39	-$110.2	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Nexusavg 46¢	$183.99	$116	-$68	15% 142-834 (976)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nexusavg 39.7¢	$34.03	$27.84	-$6.16	32% 285-613 (898)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Nexusavg 53¢	$57.3	$24.32	-$32.97	22% 136-488 (624)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Nexusavg 42¢	$31.46	$21.72	-$9.74	36% 113-199 (312)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nexusavg 45.4¢	$18.14	$15.13	-$3.01	48% 662-711 (1373)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Nexusavg 44¢	$15.15	$13.87	-$1.28	22% 33-119 (152)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BakS eSports

Invested

$34,220.74

Value

$49.0K

PnL

+$14.8K

Record

54%

134-113 (247)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Nexus

Invested

$18,522.18

Value

$11.8K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

56%

382-300 (682)

FeedTheBigBird

BakS eSports

Invested

$8,097.86

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

12-7 (19)

vibing123CTR

Nexus

Invested

$9,319.97

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

63%

1096-651 (1747)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nexus

Invested

$2,852.62

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$241.83

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

Both legs:

Nexus$1,68243.2¢-$416.45

BakS eSports$976.1159.7¢+$174.62

319113331313111ARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$2,544.22

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$286.19

Record

52%

64-60 (124)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$1,395.2364.1¢+$183.63

Nexus$1,148.9946.5¢-$469.82

purplegattoCTR

Nexus

Invested

$1,827.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$585.82

Record

69%

2586-1181 (3767)

sentrioCTR

Nexus

Invested

$1,442.3

Value

$997.65

PnL

-$444.65

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

latvian.demon

BakS eSports

Invested

$405

Value

$517.5

PnL

+$112.5

Record

26-434 (460)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nexus

Invested

$600.65

Value

$495.57

PnL

-$33.04

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$220.152.1¢+$71.19

Nexus$311.1447.2¢-$104.23

Gooooooollllllllll

BakS eSports

Invested

$343.14

Value

$415.38

PnL

+$72.24

Record

46%

512-591 (1103)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$365.66

Value

$369.12

PnL

+$3.46

Record

67%

56-28 (84)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$255.862.7¢+$19.63

Nexus$109.8638.1¢-$16.17

iWasEnoughCTR

Nexus

Invested

$559.6

Value

$365.05

PnL

-$194.55

Record

—

7-7 (14)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nexus

Invested

$238.59

Value

$128.39

PnL

-$110.2

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Nexus

Invested

$183.99

Value

$116

PnL

-$68

Record

15%

142-834 (976)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$34.03

Value

$27.84

PnL

-$6.16

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$57.3

Value

$24.32

PnL

-$32.97

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

biying88888CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$31.46

Value

$21.72

PnL

-$9.74

Record

36%

113-199 (312)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$18.14

Value

$15.13

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

OddstormCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$15.15

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$1.28

Record

22%

33-119 (152)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

4 of 16 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNexus 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNexus 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNexus 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNexus 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.