Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?
14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 85¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
22
No 64%
1 arb excluded
$12.7K
-$179.06
78.2¢ → 84.5¢
+8% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $4.4K | $4.6K | +$205.24 | 55% 3814-3145 (6959) |
 nigiri99 | Noavg 79¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$18.1 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$70.95 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $789.99 | $846.61 | +$56.62 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $412.36 | $481.09 | +$68.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78¢ | $377.63 | $365.52 | -$12.1 | |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 77.2¢ | $750.21 | $665.88 | -$21.92 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $841.63 | $656.13 | -$185.5 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $799.83 | $566.64 | -$233.19 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 78.9¢ | $520.45 | $552.15 | -$0.28 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 78.1¢ | $239.3 | $234.37 | -$4.93 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
WA WagerWizard | Noavg 76.9¢ | $195.58 | $214.83 | +$19.25 | 84% 15082-2932 (18014) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $126 | $129 | +$3 | 51% 2062-2000 (4062) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $62.96 | $59.72 | -$3.24 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $62.88 | $51.07 | -$11.81 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $60.13 | $44.38 | -$15.75 | 51% 6523-6284 (12807) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $38.42 | $39.34 | +$0.91 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $23.86 | $24.97 | +$1.11 | 53% 14954-13478 (28432) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $23.35 | $23.49 | +$0.14 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $23.66 | $23.25 | -$0.41 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $14.1 | $16.9 | +$2.8 | 64% 5377-2997 (8374) |
PT PT-S7<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.86 | $4.41 | -$0.45 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.99 | $2.23 | +$0.24 | 33% 1194-2378 (3572) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77¢ | $495.95 | $2.16 | +$12.87 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.33 | $0.34 | +$0.01 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
Invested
$4,414.57
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$205.24
Record
55%
3814-3145 (6959)
nigiri99Invested
$2,859.01
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$18.1
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$1,136.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$70.95
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$789.99
Value
$846.61
PnL
+$56.62
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Both legs:
Invested
$750.21
Value
$665.88
PnL
-$21.92
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$841.63
Value
$656.13
PnL
-$185.5
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$799.83
Value
$566.64
PnL
-$233.19
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$520.45
Value
$552.15
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$239.3
Value
$234.37
PnL
-$4.93
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$195.58
Value
$214.83
PnL
+$19.25
Record
84%
15082-2932 (18014)
Invested
$126
Value
$129
PnL
+$3
Record
51%
2062-2000 (4062)
Invested
$62.96
Value
$59.72
PnL
-$3.24
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$62.88
Value
$51.07
PnL
-$11.81
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$60.13
Value
$44.38
PnL
-$15.75
Record
51%
6523-6284 (12807)
Invested
$38.42
Value
$39.34
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$23.86
Value
$24.97
PnL
+$1.11
Record
53%
14954-13478 (28432)
Invested
$23.35
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
Invested
$23.66
Value
$23.25
PnL
-$0.41
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$16.9
PnL
+$2.8
Record
64%
5377-2997 (8374)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.41
PnL
-$0.45
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.24
Record
33%
1194-2378 (3572)
VeryLucky888Invested
$495.95
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$12.87
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.