Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 6 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 35¢ · $85K held · ends Nov 7

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$84.8K

Combined PnL

-$620.57

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 34.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 24 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$52.5K

Total Shares152,094

Combined PnL-$731.64

No18 traders

Total Value$32.3K

Total Shares48,732

Combined PnL+$111.08

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 74% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$150.0K	$51.8K	-$749.85	56% 18-14 (32)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 65¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$73.51	49% 14970-15869 (30839)
RN1	Noavg 65¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$0	53% 62265-54490 (116755)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$0	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$22.56	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
GC GC-P	Noavg 65¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$21	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
NM NM-P	Noavg 65¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	+$4	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
SE sentrio	Noavg 65¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$3.58	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
nigiri99	Noavg 67.1¢	$831.64	$805.35	-$6.2	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 65.7¢	$704.49	$697.3	-$7.19	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$525.99	$541.46	+$15.47	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 65¢	$390	$390	-$0	51% 2054-1984 (4038)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 65¢	$234	$234	-$0	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 35.1¢	$172.08	$171.48	+$2.45	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 65¢	$63.7	$63.7	-$0	54% 10426-8742 (19168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65¢	$40.16	$40.16	+$0	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 65¢	$35.51	$35.51	+$0.27	51% 6508-6274 (12782)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 65¢	$26.51	$26.51	+$0.2	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$26.42	$25.59	-$0.84	48% 1742-1871 (3613)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 64.6¢	$160.94	$13.16	+$0.09	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$12.58	$12.95	+$0.19	48% 7444-7979 (15423)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 65¢	$10	$10	+$0.08	53% 2689-2368 (5057)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$5.27	$5.25	+$0.08	49% 6376-6552 (12928)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.73	+$0.03	49% 1807-1885 (3692)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$150,000

Value

$51.8K

PnL

-$749.85

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$9,556.14

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$73.51

Record

49%

14970-15869 (30839)

RN1

Invested

$5,372.52

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

62265-54490 (116755)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,811.86

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,924.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$22.56

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

GC-P

Invested

$2,626.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$21

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

NM-P

Invested

$3,101.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

sentrio

Invested

$1,950.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$3.58

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

nigiri99

Invested

$831.64

Value

$805.35

PnL

-$6.2

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$704.49

Value

$697.3

PnL

-$7.19

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$525.99

Value

$541.46

PnL

+$15.47

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$390

Value

$390

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2054-1984 (4038)

cigarettes

Invested

$234

Value

$234

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.08

Value

$171.48

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$63.7

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.16

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$0.27

Record

51%

6508-6274 (12782)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$26.51

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$0.84

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

38791873984189

Invested

$160.94

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

7444-7979 (15423)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

2689-2368 (5057)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

6376-6552 (12928)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

1807-1885 (3692)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 24 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 74% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.