Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (48%) · Over at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$26.97

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 80.5¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 21 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,561

Combined PnL+$64.04

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,641

Combined PnL-$37.07

Over — 48%Under — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 73.5¢	$1.0K	$974.12	-$34.3	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455	Overavg 78¢	$834.64	$876.86	+$42.22	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73¢	$731.23	$748.71	+$17.48	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 21.1¢	$571.96	$497.66	-$74.3	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 26¢	$499.13	$467.71	+$22.58	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$304.41	$321.97	+$19.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 71¢	$142.72	$145.73	+$3.02
38 38791873984189	Overavg 72.1¢	$452.4	$444.38	+$64.92	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
RN1CTR	Underavg 13.7¢	$209.74	$274.6	+$64.86	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 27¢	$270	$265	-$5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 77.4¢	$243.8	$258.3	+$14.5	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 27¢	$199.07	$195.38	-$3.69	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 80¢	$176.01	$180.41	+$4.4	56% 2667-2054 (4721)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 72.1¢	$119.35	$133	+$15	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 87.3¢	$55.88	$52.51	-$3.37	71% 18402-7575 (25977)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 17.2¢	$47.96	$51.73	+$3.77	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$41.54	$40.77	-$0.77	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$52.11	$34.74	-$17.37	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 26.5¢	$32.86	$33.14	+$0.28	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 71¢	$22.56	$23.04	+$0.48	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 79¢	$171.66	$22.48	-$57.29	56% 1205-933 (2138)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$18.09	$18.43	+$0.34	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$10.4	$7.2	-$3.2	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$5.6	$3.6	-$2	49% 2142-2260 (4402)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,008.42

Value

$974.12

PnL

-$34.3

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$834.64

Value

$876.86

PnL

+$42.22

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$731.23

Value

$748.71

PnL

+$17.48

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$571.96

Value

$497.66

PnL

-$74.3

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$499.13

Value

$467.71

PnL

+$22.58

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Both legs:

Under$304.4126¢+$19.56

Over$142.7271¢+$3.02

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$452.4

Value

$444.38

PnL

+$64.92

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$209.74

Value

$274.6

PnL

+$64.86

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$270

Value

$265

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$243.8

Value

$258.3

PnL

+$14.5

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$199.07

Value

$195.38

PnL

-$3.69

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$176.01

Value

$180.41

PnL

+$4.4

Record

56%

2667-2054 (4721)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$119.35

Value

$133

PnL

+$15

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$55.88

Value

$52.51

PnL

-$3.37

Record

71%

18402-7575 (25977)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.96

Value

$51.73

PnL

+$3.77

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.54

Value

$40.77

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.11

Value

$34.74

PnL

-$17.37

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.86

Value

$33.14

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$22.56

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$0.48

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$171.66

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$57.29

Record

56%

1205-933 (2138)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.09

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$3.2

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$2

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 21 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.