Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (40%) · Nets at 59¢ · $105K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks42¢Nets58¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 40%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$105.1K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 15 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks42%

Nets59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$50.1K

Total Shares86,219

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Mavericks9 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares68,286

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Nets — 40%Mavericks — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nets) and the top 1000 (13 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleMavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrMavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Netsavg 51.5¢	$20.4K	$23.2K	+$2.8K	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Netsavg 57¢	$21.9K	$22.1K	+$192.46	50% 3040-2982 (6022)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 56.4¢	$18.4K	$18.3K	-$106.65	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 56.4¢	$9.3K	$9.6K	+$337.87
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 43.6¢	$9.1K	$8.7K	-$444.52
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Mavericksavg 41¢	$14.1K	$14.3K	+$171.92	53% 6644-5935 (12579)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Mavericksavg 49¢	$9.8K	$8.5K	$-1.3K	53% 682-594 (1276)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Mavericksavg 43.1¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$84.14	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 43.1¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$124.36
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$40.22
SU SunlineTicker	Netsavg 55.9¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$160.24	54% 5365-4576 (9941)
HG hgawxCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$451.99	41% 56-79 (135)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 42.7¢	$3.9K	$1.7K	+$3.9	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 41.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.19	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 41.7¢	$742.05	$738.45	-$3.6
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57.4¢	$722.14	$735.93	+$13.79
GC GC-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 41.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$10	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57.4¢	$717.5	$731.25	+$13.75
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 41.7¢	$729.99	$726.24	-$3.75
FE ferrariChampions2026	Netsavg 54.8¢	$899.71	$942.71	+$43	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 43.4¢	$509.55	$487.21	-$22.34	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 43.1¢	$729.48	$348.19	-$4.49	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$261.92	$239.26	-$22.66	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48¢	$202.52	$175.1	-$23.21
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57¢	$62.52	$64.16	+$0.55
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Mavericksavg 43¢	$206.41	$199.21	-$7.2	48% 520-559 (1079)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Mavericksavg 42¢	$400	$166	-$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
RN1	Netsavg 58¢	$145	$146.25	+$1.25	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Mavericksavg 42.8¢	$105.35	$105.13	-$0.22	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
BI biying99999ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$59.57	$60.71	+$1.14	47% 150-169 (319)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57¢	$29.64	$30.42	+$0.78
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 41¢	$29.93	$30.29	+$0.36
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Mavericksavg 45.4¢	$61.68	$51.22	+$0.47	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 51.6¢	$23.21	$26.32	+$3.48
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.4¢	$27.26	$24.9	-$3.01
0xheavy888<$100	Netsavg 57.5¢	$31.23	$31.11	-$0.11	56% 8773-6961 (15734)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$20,434.28

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Nets

Invested

$21,940.26

Value

$22.1K

PnL

+$192.46

Record

50%

3040-2982 (6022)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$18,409.57

Value

$18.3K

PnL

-$106.65

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Both legs:

Nets$9,283.7856.4¢+$337.87

Mavericks$9,125.7843.6¢-$444.52

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$14,097.23

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$171.92

Record

53%

6644-5935 (12579)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$9,800

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

682-594 (1276)

hi774cARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4,922.86

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$84.14

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

Both legs:

Mavericks$3,394.4643.1¢-$124.36

Nets$1,528.457¢+$40.22

SunlineTicker

Nets

Invested

$3,426.98

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$160.24

Record

54%

5365-4576 (9941)

hgawxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,339.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$451.99

Record

41%

56-79 (135)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,901.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$3.9

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

NM-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,464.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.19

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Mavericks$742.0541.7¢-$3.6

Nets$722.1457.4¢+$13.79

GC-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,447.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Both legs:

Nets$717.557.4¢+$13.75

Mavericks$729.9941.7¢-$3.75

ferrariChampions2026

Nets

Invested

$899.71

Value

$942.71

PnL

+$43

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$509.55

Value

$487.21

PnL

-$22.34

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$729.48

Value

$348.19

PnL

-$4.49

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

sentrioARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$261.92

Value

$239.26

PnL

-$22.66

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Both legs:

Mavericks$202.5248¢-$23.21

Nets$62.5257¢+$0.55

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$206.41

Value

$199.21

PnL

-$7.2

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$400

Value

$166

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

RN1

Nets

Invested

$145

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

SnakeBallCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$105.35

Value

$105.13

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

biying99999ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$59.57

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$1.14

Record

47%

150-169 (319)

Both legs:

Nets$29.6457¢+$0.78

Mavericks$29.9341¢+$0.36

Pan9XARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$61.68

Value

$51.22

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Both legs:

Nets$23.2151.6¢+$3.48

Mavericks$27.2645.4¢-$3.01

0xheavy888<$100

Nets

Invested

$31.23

Value

$31.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 15 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nets) and the top 1000 (13 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleMavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrMavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.