Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (88%) · Celtics at 53¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics53¢76ers47¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 52.5¢

+30% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

15 of 17 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics53%

76ers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics15 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares38,165

Combined PnL+$1.5K

76ers2 traders

Total Value$829.96

Total Shares1,526

Combined PnL-$74.38

Celtics — 88%76ers — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+51 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 88% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 39.5¢	$10.4K	$11.3K	+$920.46	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Celticsavg 44.3¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$277.79	54% 217-188 (405)
VeryLucky888	Celticsavg 39¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$160	51% 300-292 (592)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 54¢	$902.4	$828.09	-$74.31	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 49.9¢	$504.83	$530.67	+$25.84	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 43¢	$522.8	$521.2	-$1.6	56% 488-383 (871)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Celticsavg 40.6¢	$433.73	$428.11	+$52.09	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 40.6¢	$247.83	$320.28	+$72.45
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 55¢	$124.85	$107.82	-$20.36
BR BreakTheBank	Celticsavg 40¢	$335.8	$360.98	+$25.18	42% 574-809 (1383)
RN1ARB<$100	Celticsavg 44.5¢	$287.94	$317.6	+$29.66	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 44.5¢	$171.78	$202.65	+$30.87
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48¢	$116.16	$114.95	-$1.21
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 55.6¢	$266.01	$259.21	+$12.88	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 40¢	$123.16	$132.44	+$9.77
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 55.6¢	$123.66	$126.77	+$3.11
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 42.6¢	$159.66	$196.83	+$37.17	27% 63-170 (233)
MA MadridTime	Celticsavg 46.4¢	$143.88	$162.75	+$18.87	28% 279-704 (983)
SN SnakeBall	Celticsavg 39.7¢	$135.83	$147.12	+$11.3	48% 190-206 (396)
LI LightParadox	Celticsavg 48.5¢	$133.48	$144.63	+$11.15	28% 275-716 (991)
LI Limousin	Celticsavg 42.6¢	$81.38	$100.38	+$19	28% 285-731 (1016)
VE Venusian<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$66.74	$76.17	+$9.43	28% 279-730 (1009)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	76ersavg 54.7¢	$97.83	$43.8	+$4.63	49% 444-470 (914)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 54.7¢	$26.26	$22.8	-$1.77
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 40¢	$16.02	$21	+$6.4
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$14.8	$15.91	+$1.11	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SE sentrio<$100	Celticsavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.15	+$0.25	34% 233-457 (690)
RL RLWG<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$2	$2.15	+$0.15	68% 1599-746 (2345)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$1.94	$1.87	-$0.07	26% 181-519 (700)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$10,374.67

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$920.46

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Celtics

Invested

$1,494.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$277.79

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

VeryLucky888

Celtics

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$160

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$902.4

Value

$828.09

PnL

-$74.31

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$504.83

Value

$530.67

PnL

+$25.84

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$522.8

Value

$521.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$433.73

Value

$428.11

PnL

+$52.09

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Celtics$247.8340.6¢+$72.45

76ers$124.8555¢-$20.36

BreakTheBank

Celtics

Invested

$335.8

Value

$360.98

PnL

+$25.18

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

RN1ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$287.94

Value

$317.6

PnL

+$29.66

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Celtics$171.7844.5¢+$30.87

76ers$116.1648¢-$1.21

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$266.01

Value

$259.21

PnL

+$12.88

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Celtics$123.1640¢+$9.77

76ers$123.6655.6¢+$3.11

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$159.66

Value

$196.83

PnL

+$37.17

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

MadridTime

Celtics

Invested

$143.88

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$18.87

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

SnakeBall

Celtics

Invested

$135.83

Value

$147.12

PnL

+$11.3

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

LightParadox

Celtics

Invested

$133.48

Value

$144.63

PnL

+$11.15

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

Limousin

Celtics

Invested

$81.38

Value

$100.38

PnL

+$19

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

Venusian<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.74

Value

$76.17

PnL

+$9.43

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Pan9XARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$97.83

Value

$43.8

PnL

+$4.63

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Both legs:

76ers$26.2654.7¢-$1.77

Celtics$16.0240¢+$6.4

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.8

Value

$15.91

PnL

+$1.11

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

sentrio<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

RLWG<$100

Celtics

Invested

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.07

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

15 of 17 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+51 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 88% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.