Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 37¢ · $83K held · ended Nov 12

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$83.0K

Combined PnL

$-14.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 37¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$55.5K

Total Shares82,518

Combined PnL+$14.7K

Under6 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares103,286

Combined PnL$-29.5K

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 49.1¢	$23.6K	$27.4K	+$3.8K	48% 536-588 (1124)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.8¢	$15.1K	$25.7K	+$10.6K	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SI SineNooneEICTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$46.6K	$18.8K	$-27.7K	55% 629-522 (1151)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	+$118.25	52% 497-452 (949)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$277.81
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$159.57
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.7K	$3.0K	$-1.7K	25% 21-63 (84)
HI hi774c	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$184.55	14% 77-472 (549)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.08	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$504.58	$580.66	+$76.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$500	$430	-$70
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$956.85	$971.34	+$14.49	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$510.14	$585.91	+$75.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$446.7	$385.42	-$61.28
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 50.4¢	$426.28	$482.05	+$55.77	15% 150-841 (991)
0xheavy888	Overavg 50¢	$250	$285	+$35	55% 205-165 (370)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 50¢	$181.34	$237.29	+$55.95	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 41.4¢	$225.92	$234.45	+$8.53	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 20.3¢	$199.17	$203.27	+$4.09	55% 719-584 (1303)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$93.84	$79.12	-$14.72	37% 121-203 (324)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$68.72	$75.21	+$6.48	55% 680-552 (1232)
AN anothercoin<$100	Overavg 83¢	$10.62	$8.06	-$2.56	40% 1355-2018 (3373)
RN1<$100	Overavg 78¢	$4.68	$4.77	+$0.09	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.85	+$0.3	34% 327-634 (961)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$1.33	$1.43	+$0.1	53% 1851-1666 (3517)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$23,616.44

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$15,137.77

Value

$25.7K

PnL

+$10.6K

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

SineNooneEICTR

Under

Invested

$46,578.95

Value

$18.8K

PnL

$-27.7K

Record

55%

629-522 (1151)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,267.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$118.25

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

Both legs:

Over$1,844.0649.6¢+$277.81

Under$1,159.7949.9¢-$159.57

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,730.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,130.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$184.55

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,004.58

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.08

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Over$504.5849.5¢+$76.08

Under$50050¢-$70

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$956.85

Value

$971.34

PnL

+$14.49

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Over$510.1449.6¢+$75.77

Under$446.749.8¢-$61.28

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$426.28

Value

$482.05

PnL

+$55.77

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$250

Value

$285

PnL

+$35

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$181.34

Value

$237.29

PnL

+$55.95

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$225.92

Value

$234.45

PnL

+$8.53

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$199.17

Value

$203.27

PnL

+$4.09

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93.84

Value

$79.12

PnL

-$14.72

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$68.72

Value

$75.21

PnL

+$6.48

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

anothercoin<$100

Over

Invested

$10.62

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$2.56

Record

40%

1355-2018 (3373)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.3

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.