Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (39%) · Hawks at 57¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 10

Lakers43¢Hawks57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 39%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

-$330.9

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 18 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers43%

Hawks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares20,286

Combined PnL-$50.66

Lakers11 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares21,420

Combined PnL-$280.24

Hawks — 39%Lakers — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 57.8¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$68.18	30% 29-67 (96)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Lakersavg 42¢	$6.7K	$6.5K	-$158.73	44% 34-43 (77)
SU SunlineTicker	Hawksavg 58¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$20.47	4% 5-123 (128)
RO ropetard	Hawksavg 56.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20.34	— 3-7 (10)
RN1CTR	Lakersavg 45.8¢	$691.82	$623.19	-$69.61	54% 233-201 (434)
GC GC-PCTR	Lakersavg 43¢	$615.75	$610.62	-$5.12	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-PCTR	Lakersavg 43¢	$598.17	$581.66	-$16.52	6% 11-164 (175)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawksavg 57.2¢	$526.98	$522.43	-$4.55	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 57.2¢	$269.45	$270.83	+$1.38
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43.5¢	$257.53	$251.6	-$5.93
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Hawksavg 57¢	$979.54	$500	+$0	49% 60-63 (123)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 57¢	$285	$287.5	+$2.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45¢	$225	$212.5	-$2.5
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hawksavg 58¢	$599.99	$397.97	-$19.48	52% 242-224 (466)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 58¢	$252.08	$249.91	-$2.17
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44.4¢	$154.8	$148.06	-$17.31
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawksavg 53¢	$312.5	$327.24	+$14.74	30% 105-246 (351)
SE sentrioCTR	Lakersavg 45.6¢	$290.36	$286.84	-$17.76	23% 49-165 (214)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 58¢	$284.78	$282.33	-$2.45	43% 28-37 (65)
AN Anon455CTR	Lakersavg 43¢	$215	$212.5	-$2.5	48% 82-90 (172)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Lakersavg 44¢	$176	$170	-$6	5% 21-415 (436)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Lakersavg 43.5¢	$121.25	$117.2	+$1.53	45% 38-46 (84)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43.5¢	$80.8	$77.1	+$1.87
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59¢	$40.45	$40.11	-$0.34
TA takeormake<$100	Hawksavg 53¢	$50.25	$52.62	+$2.37	27% 84-223 (307)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Lakersavg 42¢	$49.56	$50.15	+$0.59	25% 86-262 (348)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lakersavg 44.6¢	$66.89	$25.93	-$3.72	48% 173-188 (361)
VE Venusian<$100	Hawksavg 49¢	$22.54	$25.53	+$2.99	23% 82-268 (350)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lakersavg 48.3¢	$7.55	$6.68	-$0.87	18% 42-190 (232)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Lakersavg 42¢	$1.32	$1.34	+$0.02	5% 4-79 (83)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$7,613.04

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$68.18

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Siddhartha1CTR

Lakers

Invested

$6,666.65

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$158.73

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

SunlineTicker

Hawks

Invested

$2,375.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$20.47

Record

5-123 (128)

ropetard

Hawks

Invested

$1,922.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20.34

Record

—

3-7 (10)

RN1CTR

Lakers

Invested

$691.82

Value

$623.19

PnL

-$69.61

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

GC-PCTR

Lakers

Invested

$615.75

Value

$610.62

PnL

-$5.12

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-PCTR

Lakers

Invested

$598.17

Value

$581.66

PnL

-$16.52

Record

11-164 (175)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$526.98

Value

$522.43

PnL

-$4.55

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Hawks$269.4557.2¢+$1.38

Lakers$257.5343.5¢-$5.93

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$979.54

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Both legs:

Invested

$599.99

Value

$397.97

PnL

-$19.48

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Both legs:

Hawks$252.0858¢-$2.17

Lakers$154.844.4¢-$17.31

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawks

Invested

$312.5

Value

$327.24

PnL

+$14.74

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

sentrioCTR

Lakers

Invested

$290.36

Value

$286.84

PnL

-$17.76

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$284.78

Value

$282.33

PnL

-$2.45

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

Anon455CTR

Lakers

Invested

$215

Value

$212.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Lakers

Invested

$176

Value

$170

PnL

-$6

Record

21-415 (436)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$121.25

Value

$117.2

PnL

+$1.53

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

Both legs:

Lakers$80.843.5¢+$1.87

Hawks$40.4559¢-$0.34

takeormake<$100

Hawks

Invested

$50.25

Value

$52.62

PnL

+$2.37

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$49.56

Value

$50.15

PnL

+$0.59

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$66.89

Value

$25.93

PnL

-$3.72

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Venusian<$100

Hawks

Invested

$22.54

Value

$25.53

PnL

+$2.99

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$7.55

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$0.87

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.02

Record

4-79 (83)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 18 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.