Lakers vs. Pistons

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (55%) · Pistons at 63¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Lakers38¢Pistons62¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 55%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$38.48

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

11 of 20 top traders (55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers38%

Pistons63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons11 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,728

Combined PnL+$70.95

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,896

Combined PnL-$109.44

Pistons — 55%Lakers — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 62.1¢	$9.3K	$8.5K	-$733.32	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 62.1¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$32.34
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45.8¢	$4.2K	$3.5K	-$765.66
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 61.7¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	+$45.54	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 60.5¢	$1.4K	$918.09	-$52.91	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 60.5¢	$551.02	$577.95	+$35.69
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43.9¢	$409.52	$340.15	-$88.61
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 61¢	$597	$601.89	+$4.89	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
NM NM-P	Pistonsavg 62.4¢	$546.67	$547.29	+$0.62	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GA GaditimaCTR	Lakersavg 57.7¢	$29.36	$404.6	-$61.04	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
GC GC-P	Pistonsavg 62.5¢	$323.92	$324.02	+$0.09	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
SN SnakeBall	Pistonsavg 58.8¢	$252.69	$268.74	+$16.05	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
TA takeormakeCTR	Lakersavg 37¢	$254.66	$258.1	+$3.44	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Lakersavg 44¢	$254.91	$223.05	-$31.86	54% 542-460 (1002)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Lakersavg 38¢	$220.05	$211.37	-$8.69	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Lakersavg 39¢	$202.3	$199.71	-$2.59	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SE sentrio	Pistonsavg 61¢	$128.4	$129.45	+$1.05	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$73.26	$102.35	-$0.52	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 47¢	$74.04	$74.04	-$0.79
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52¢	$27.77	$28.31	+$0.27
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Pistonsavg 52¢	$97	$100	+$3	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52¢	$52	$61.5	+$9.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45¢	$45	$38.5	-$6.5
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39¢	$85.45	$84.35	-$1.1	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$76.24	$74.38	-$6.9	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 54.2¢	$35.26	$40.63	+$0.33
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$40.98	$33.75	-$7.23
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Lakersavg 39.2¢	$54.6	$52.26	-$2.34	— 0-2 (2)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Lakersavg 43.4¢	$43.34	$38.4	-$4.94	49% 269-278 (547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 59.3¢	$89.5	$20.37	+$2.71	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0xheavy888<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$12.2	$12.3	+$0.1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Lakersavg 40¢	$8.59	$8.27	-$0.32	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
RL RLWG<$100	Pistonsavg 63¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Pistonsavg 64.2¢	$2.07	$2	-$0.07	58% 41-30 (71)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$1.22	$1.23	+$0.01	45% 3029-3730 (6759)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$9,265.15

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$733.32

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Both legs:

Pistons$5,034.4962.1¢+$32.34

Lakers$4,230.6645.8¢-$765.66

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$2,314.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$45.54

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,359.71

Value

$918.09

PnL

-$52.91

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Pistons$551.0260.5¢+$35.69

Lakers$409.5243.9¢-$88.61

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$597

Value

$601.89

PnL

+$4.89

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

NM-P

Pistons

Invested

$546.67

Value

$547.29

PnL

+$0.62

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GaditimaCTR

Lakers

Invested

$29.36

Value

$404.6

PnL

-$61.04

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

GC-P

Pistons

Invested

$323.92

Value

$324.02

PnL

+$0.09

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

SnakeBall

Pistons

Invested

$252.69

Value

$268.74

PnL

+$16.05

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

takeormakeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$254.66

Value

$258.1

PnL

+$3.44

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Lakers

Invested

$254.91

Value

$223.05

PnL

-$31.86

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

darkumbreon88CTR

Lakers

Invested

$220.05

Value

$211.37

PnL

-$8.69

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

MadridTimeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$202.3

Value

$199.71

PnL

-$2.59

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

sentrio

Pistons

Invested

$128.4

Value

$129.45

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

OddstormARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$73.26

Value

$102.35

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Both legs:

Lakers$74.0447¢-$0.79

Pistons$27.7752¢+$0.27

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$97

Value

$100

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.45

Value

$84.35

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$76.24

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$6.9

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Pistons$35.2654.2¢+$0.33

Lakers$40.9845.5¢-$7.23

westing.v1CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$54.6

Value

$52.26

PnL

-$2.34

Record

—

0-2 (2)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$43.34

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$4.94

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$89.5

Value

$20.37

PnL

+$2.71

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xheavy888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$8.59

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

RLWG<$100

Pistons

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Aceplus3<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

41-30 (71)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

11 of 20 top traders (55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.