Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (60%) · Grizzlies at 52¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies52¢Raptors48¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.6K

Combined PnL

-$338.96

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 15 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies52%

Raptors49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies9 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,017

Combined PnL-$366.28

Raptors6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares13,240

Combined PnL+$27.33

Grizzlies — 60%Raptors — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$13.2K	$12.3K	-$975.8	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 56¢	$8.0K	$7.1K	-$933.26
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50.9¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$42.54
nigiri99	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$57.68	43% 28-37 (65)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Raptorsavg 55¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$45.08	2% 3-120 (123)
HI hi774cCTR	Raptorsavg 56¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17.03	3% 9-249 (258)
LI LightParadox	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$17	26% 87-252 (339)
LI Limousin	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.3	24% 90-282 (372)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 57¢	$540	$500	-$40	48% 82-90 (172)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 57¢	$285	$247.5	-$37.5
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 58.2¢	$382.04	$342.59	-$39.46	54% 233-201 (434)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 58.2¢	$254.54	$216.34	-$38.21
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$127.5	$126.25	-$1.25
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 49.5¢	$430	$277.8	-$22.92	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 49.5¢	$194.8	$198.6	+$3.8
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 56.3¢	$90.03	$79.2	-$26.72
VeryLucky888	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$4.4K	$250.1	-$282.43	49% 60-63 (123)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 56¢	$229.6	$227.55	-$2.05	52% 242-224 (466)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Raptorsavg 48¢	$135.36	$136.77	+$1.41	3% 4-156 (160)
VE Venusian<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$94	$97	+$3	23% 82-268 (350)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Raptorsavg 56.8¢	$74.75	$49.45	-$6.8	48% 173-188 (361)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 56.8¢	$31.81	$27.74	-$6.59
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$21.93	$21.72	-$0.21
drainedandpoor<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$47.42	$46.96	-$0.46	— 1-1 (2)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$40.46	$40.1	-$0.36	45% 38-46 (84)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 55¢	$29.7	$29.97	+$0.27	6% 2-34 (36)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$15.29	$15.14	-$0.15	32% 68-143 (211)
MA MadridTime<$100	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.9	-$0.2	25% 86-262 (348)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.05	18% 42-190 (232)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$13,235.84

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$975.8

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Raptors$8,038.856¢-$933.26

Grizzlies$5,197.0350.9¢-$42.54

nigiri99

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,883.87

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$57.68

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Raptors

Invested

$4,959.16

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$45.08

Record

3-120 (123)

hi774cCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,907

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$17.03

Record

9-249 (258)

LightParadox

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,598.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

Limousin

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,062.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.3

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Anon455ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$540

Value

$500

PnL

-$40

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$25551¢-$2.5

Raptors$28557¢-$37.5

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$382.04

Value

$342.59

PnL

-$39.46

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Both legs:

Raptors$254.5458.2¢-$38.21

Grizzlies$127.551¢-$1.25

38791873984189ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$430

Value

$277.8

PnL

-$22.92

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$194.849.5¢+$3.8

Raptors$90.0356.3¢-$26.72

VeryLucky888

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,380

Value

$250.1

PnL

-$282.43

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$229.6

Value

$227.55

PnL

-$2.05

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Raptors

Invested

$135.36

Value

$136.77

PnL

+$1.41

Record

4-156 (160)

Venusian<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$94

Value

$97

PnL

+$3

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

Pan9XARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$74.75

Value

$49.45

PnL

-$6.8

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Both legs:

Raptors$31.8156.8¢-$6.59

Grizzlies$21.9351¢-$0.21

drainedandpoor<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$47.42

Value

$46.96

PnL

-$0.46

Record

—

1-1 (2)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$40.46

Value

$40.1

PnL

-$0.36

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

biying99999CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.27

Record

2-34 (36)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.14

PnL

-$0.15

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

MadridTime<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 15 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.