Bucks vs. Knicks

26 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (52%) · Knicks at 92¢ · $251K held · ended Nov 11

Bucks9¢Knicks91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$251.1K

Combined PnL

-$125.37

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 91.5¢

+1% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

26 of 50 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks9%

Knicks92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks26 traders

Total Value$228.0K

Total Shares245,573

Combined PnL+$912.04

Bucks24 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares177,940

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Knicks — 52%Bucks — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBucks 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrBucks 65% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 51% · 35

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Knicksavg 90¢	$90.0K	$91.5K	+$1.5K	51% 710-691 (1401)
WI winner877	Knicksavg 90.8¢	$71.5K	$70.9K	-$635.95	— 1-0 (1)
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 89¢	$14.3K	$14.5K	+$221.48	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
TA takeormake	Knicksavg 90.3¢	$11.7K	$11.4K	-$265.6	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Knicksavg 89.7¢	$9.3K	$9.3K	+$20.52	56% 3819-2985 (6804)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Bucksavg 10¢	$9.0K	$8.5K	-$447.85	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
HE hewhodoesit	Knicksavg 90¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$68.05	— 2-2 (4)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Knicksavg 89.4¢	$6.3K	$4.4K	-$400.63	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 89.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$54.28
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 10.3¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$454.92
nehcnehc	Knicksavg 90¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$0	19% 13-57 (70)
GC GC-P	Knicksavg 89.3¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	16% 67-351 (418)
DA darkumbreon88	Knicksavg 90¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0	61% 900-577 (1477)
RN1	Knicksavg 89.2¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$176.56	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
NM NM-P	Knicksavg 89.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$25	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
HE henryttok	Knicksavg 88.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.7	— 11-4 (15)
AL allen114	Knicksavg 90¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$30	2% 1-52 (53)
38 38791873984189	Knicksavg 89.6¢	$4.9K	$1.8K	+$36.35	48% 947-1017 (1964)
LO lottajizzCTR	Bucksavg 11¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$150	— 0-5 (5)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 9.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$36.33	8% 37-422 (459)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Knicksavg 91¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$50.98	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 91¢	$658.4	$651.17	-$7.24
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 10.8¢	$575.33	$531.59	-$43.74
FR frohp5	Knicksavg 91¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.1	60% 1218-803 (2021)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bucksavg 9¢	$983	$1.1K	+$109.22	47% 500-558 (1058)
nigiri99	Knicksavg 86.4¢	$797.08	$825.1	+$28.02	52% 128-120 (248)
SE sentrio	Knicksavg 89¢	$746.4	$754.69	+$8.29	34% 233-457 (690)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 9.8¢	$1.7K	$750	+$50	51% 299-291 (590)
10 10scat	Knicksavg 91¢	$666.6	$670.26	+$3.66	2% 10-513 (523)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Knicks

Invested

$90,000

Value

$91.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

710-691 (1401)

winner877

Knicks

Invested

$71,502.36

Value

$70.9K

PnL

-$635.95

Record

—

1-0 (1)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$14,324.27

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$221.48

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

takeormake

Knicks

Invested

$11,718.61

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$265.6

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Knicks

Invested

$9,266.73

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$20.52

Record

56%

3819-2985 (6804)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bucks

Invested

$8,957.04

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$447.85

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

hewhodoesit

Knicks

Invested

$6,823.83

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$68.05

Record

—

2-2 (4)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$6,257.69

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$400.63

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Knicks$2,538.1689.4¢+$54.28

Bucks$2,145.9810.3¢-$454.92

nehcnehc

Knicks

Invested

$3,100

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

GC-P

Knicks

Invested

$3,019.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

darkumbreon88

Knicks

Invested

$2,635.49

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$2,987.13

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$176.56

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

NM-P

Knicks

Invested

$2,024.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

henryttok

Knicks

Invested

$1,929.37

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.7

Record

—

11-4 (15)

allen114

Knicks

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$30

Record

1-52 (53)

38791873984189

Knicks

Invested

$4,945.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$36.35

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

lottajizzCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$150

Record

—

0-5 (5)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,327

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$36.33

Record

37-422 (459)

purplegattoARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,233.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50.98

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

Both legs:

Knicks$658.491¢-$7.24

Bucks$575.3310.8¢-$43.74

frohp5

Knicks

Invested

$1,111

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.1

Record

60%

1218-803 (2021)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bucks

Invested

$983

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$109.22

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

nigiri99

Knicks

Invested

$797.08

Value

$825.1

PnL

+$28.02

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

sentrio

Knicks

Invested

$746.4

Value

$754.69

PnL

+$8.29

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,679

Value

$750

PnL

+$50

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

10scat

Knicks

Invested

$666.6

Value

$670.26

PnL

+$3.66

Record

10-513 (523)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

26 of 50 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBucks 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrBucks 65% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 51% · 35

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.