Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 54¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder47¢Trail Blazers53¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$264.24

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 53.5¢

-10% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder47%

Trail Blazers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers12 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares29,508

Combined PnL-$364.36

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares18,223

Combined PnL+$628.6

Trail Blazers — 60%Thunder — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Trail Blazersavg 60¢	$11.4K	$10.9K	-$475.12	42% 574-809 (1383)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Thunderavg 40¢	$6.7K	$7.3K	+$589.12	70% 1660-708 (2368)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 58.1¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$79.53	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 63¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$98.98	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$90.51
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 42.7¢	$307.71	$299.24	-$8.47
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$784.45	$721.69	+$98.63	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$465.61	$445.78	-$19.83
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 31.2¢	$197.64	$275.91	+$118.46
alpheclabs2	Trail Blazersavg 54.6¢	$339.6	$363.57	+$23.97	46% 95-110 (205)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 37.4¢	$330.95	$359.07	+$28.12	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 37.4¢	$204.39	$226.86	+$22.47
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$126.56	$132.21	+$5.65
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 57.7¢	$342.47	$244.45	-$2.72	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Trail Blazersavg 60¢	$240	$236	-$4	12% 105-801 (906)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 41.6¢	$181.18	$189.5	+$8.32	53% 228-199 (427)
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 57.1¢	$161.79	$135.84	-$0.01	49% 498-518 (1016)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 58.8¢	$510.2	$127.39	+$8.09	51% 354-335 (689)
GC GC-PCTR	Thunderavg 39¢	$97.49	$106.23	+$8.75	17% 75-358 (433)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Thunderavg 39¢	$82.16	$89.54	+$7.37	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Thunderavg 39.4¢	$80.66	$86.91	+$6.24	48% 231-247 (478)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55.8¢	$71	$76.13	+$5.14	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
RN1<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$79.06	$75.71	-$3.35	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Thunderavg 42¢	$58.8	$67.2	+$8.4	28% 317-800 (1117)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 41¢	$64.54	$64.38	-$0.16	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
LR lryyy<$100	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$47.52	$51.48	+$3.96	49% 200-208 (408)
0xheavy888<$100	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.8	+$0.2	57% 145-111 (256)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40¢	$6.4	$6.96	+$0.56	29% 322-773 (1095)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60¢	$3	$2.95	-$0.05	27% 201-533 (734)

BreakTheBank

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11,402.97

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$475.12

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

SunlineTickerCTR

Thunder

Invested

$6,732.8

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$589.12

Record

70%

1660-708 (2368)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,825.97

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$79.53

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,580.22

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$98.98

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$1,272.5163¢-$90.51

Thunder$307.7142.7¢-$8.47

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$784.45

Value

$721.69

PnL

+$98.63

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$465.6159¢-$19.83

Thunder$197.6431.2¢+$118.46

alpheclabs2

Trail Blazers

Invested

$339.6

Value

$363.57

PnL

+$23.97

Record

46%

95-110 (205)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$330.95

Value

$359.07

PnL

+$28.12

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Thunder$204.3937.4¢+$22.47

Trail Blazers$126.5656¢+$5.65

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$342.47

Value

$244.45

PnL

-$2.72

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Trail Blazers

Invested

$240

Value

$236

PnL

-$4

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$181.18

Value

$189.5

PnL

+$8.32

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$161.79

Value

$135.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$510.2

Value

$127.39

PnL

+$8.09

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

GC-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$97.49

Value

$106.23

PnL

+$8.75

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

NM-PCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$82.16

Value

$89.54

PnL

+$7.37

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$80.66

Value

$86.91

PnL

+$6.24

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$71

Value

$76.13

PnL

+$5.14

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

RN1<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$79.06

Value

$75.71

PnL

-$3.35

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

VenusianCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$58.8

Value

$67.2

PnL

+$8.4

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$64.54

Value

$64.38

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

lryyy<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$47.52

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$3.96

Record

49%

200-208 (408)

0xheavy888<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.56

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.