Thunder vs. Trail Blazers

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (78%) · Thunder at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Thunder51¢Trail Blazers49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$139.91

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder51%

Trail Blazers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,715

Combined PnL+$97.32

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,351

Combined PnL+$42.59

Thunder — 78%Trail Blazers — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$24.52	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$42	1% 5-496 (501)
VeryLucky888	Thunderavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	52% 463-433 (896)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Thunderavg 50¢	$972.69	$982.42	+$9.73	48% 536-588 (1124)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$530.78	$570.68	+$39.9	22% 33-119 (152)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 48¢	$313.57	$333.5	+$19.94
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 44.9¢	$217.21	$237.18	+$19.96
GC GC-P	Thunderavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	20% 98-382 (480)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Thunderavg 46¢	$172.77	$191.55	+$18.78	51% 3716-3548 (7264)
NM NM-P	Thunderavg 50¢	$172.38	$174.1	+$1.72	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thunderavg 45.2¢	$140.38	$149.72	+$9.34	50% 3294-3249 (6543)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 45.2¢	$100.95	$113.92	+$12.97
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$39.42	$35.79	-$3.63
GT gt7238	Thunderavg 45.8¢	$100.97	$112.37	+$11.39	4% 18-456 (474)
DA darkumbreon88ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$81.65	$82.27	+$0.62	61% 927-593 (1520)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$54.71	$55.85	+$1.14
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52¢	$26.94	$26.42	-$0.52
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Thunderavg 43¢	$63.64	$75.49	+$11.84	38% 137-223 (360)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Thunderavg 53.7¢	$72.93	$69.24	-$3.69	9% 24-239 (263)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$38.76	$39.57	+$0.81	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
LI LightParadox<$100	Thunderavg 47¢	$29.06	$31.53	+$2.47	30% 380-875 (1255)
CI cigarettes<$100	Thunderavg 43¢	$21.5	$25.5	+$4	53% 5734-5129 (10863)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 53.1¢	$22.74	$21.76	-$0.98	18% 48-217 (265)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢	$16.88	$17.64	+$0.76	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
MA MadridTime<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$8.91	$9.27	+$0.36	31% 384-854 (1238)
GH ghorrock<$100	Thunderavg 48.2¢	$90.15	$3.84	+$3.7	55% 625-514 (1139)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	32% 295-621 (916)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$2,452

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.52

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,015.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$42

Record

5-496 (501)

VeryLucky888

Thunder

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

Multicoloured-Serf

Thunder

Invested

$972.69

Value

$982.42

PnL

+$9.73

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

OddstormARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$530.78

Value

$570.68

PnL

+$39.9

Record

22%

33-119 (152)

Both legs:

Thunder$313.5748¢+$19.94

Trail Blazers$217.2144.9¢+$19.96

GC-P

Thunder

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

20%

98-382 (480)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Thunder

Invested

$172.77

Value

$191.55

PnL

+$18.78

Record

51%

3716-3548 (7264)

NM-P

Thunder

Invested

$172.38

Value

$174.1

PnL

+$1.72

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$140.38

Value

$149.72

PnL

+$9.34

Record

50%

3294-3249 (6543)

Both legs:

Thunder$100.9545.2¢+$12.97

Trail Blazers$39.4254¢-$3.63

gt7238

Thunder

Invested

$100.97

Value

$112.37

PnL

+$11.39

Record

18-456 (474)

darkumbreon88ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$81.65

Value

$82.27

PnL

+$0.62

Record

61%

927-593 (1520)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$54.7148¢+$1.14

Thunder$26.9452¢-$0.52

LuckyLoo<$100

Thunder

Invested

$63.64

Value

$75.49

PnL

+$11.84

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Thunder

Invested

$72.93

Value

$69.24

PnL

-$3.69

Record

24-239 (263)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$38.76

Value

$39.57

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

LightParadox<$100

Thunder

Invested

$29.06

Value

$31.53

PnL

+$2.47

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

cigarettes<$100

Thunder

Invested

$21.5

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

5734-5129 (10863)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$22.74

Value

$21.76

PnL

-$0.98

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.88

Value

$17.64

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

MadridTime<$100

Thunder

Invested

$8.91

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$0.36

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

ghorrock<$100

Thunder

Invested

$90.15

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$3.7

Record

55%

625-514 (1139)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.