Magic vs. Kings

20 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (56%) · Magic at 66¢ · $205K held · ended Nov 11

Magic66¢Kings34¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 56%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$204.8K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 65.5¢

+4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

20 of 36 top traders (56%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic66%

Kings35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic20 traders

Total Value$94.4K

Total Shares134,335

Combined PnL+$7.6K

Kings16 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares86,580

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Magic — 56%Kings — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMagic 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperMagic 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 71% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 68% · 40

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Magicavg 59.3¢	$42.0K	$46.4K	+$4.4K	47% 500-559 (1059)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Magicavg 66.6¢	$16.1K	$15.9K	-$184.19	56% 3823-2988 (6811)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 66.6¢	$10.4K	$10.2K	-$172.98
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 34.6¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$11.21
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 67.8¢	$20.6K	$14.9K	$-1.3K	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 67.8¢	$8.2K	$7.7K	$-1.3K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 36.8¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	-$67.77
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Magicavg 67.8¢	$10.8K	$10.8K	+$34.8	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 67.8¢	$8.4K	$8.1K	-$289.44
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 30.3¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$324.24
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Magicavg 67.1¢	$10.8K	$9.9K	-$882.82	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 67.1¢	$7.8K	$6.3K	$-1.5K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 38.3¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$569.95
RN1ARB<$100	Magicavg 66.6¢	$8.9K	$9.5K	+$526.5	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 66.6¢	$6.3K	$5.2K	$-1.2K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 27.6¢	$2.6K	$4.3K	+$1.7K
NS NS13	Magicavg 67¢	$7.7K	$8.6K	+$921.07	— 0-1 (1)
VeryLucky888	Magicavg 66¢	$10.4K	$8.3K	+$1.0K	51% 330-319 (649)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Kingsavg 45.4¢	$9.0K	$7.2K	$-1.8K	42% 102-141 (243)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 68¢	$5.6K	$5.9K	+$380.31	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Magicavg 61.4¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$264.92	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 61.4¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$566.54
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 34.7¢	$885.81	$1.2K	+$301.62
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Kingsavg 34¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$307.14	51% 710-691 (1401)
HI hi774c	Magicavg 68¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$413.21	8% 37-423 (460)
HE henryttokARB<$100	Magicavg 60.1¢	$5.5K	$4.4K	-$133.29	— 11-4 (15)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 60.1¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$104
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 42¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$237.29
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Magicavg 67.9¢	$4.6K	$4.2K	-$367.09	56% 504-395 (899)
DA darkumbreon88	Magicavg 65.4¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$527.57	61% 900-578 (1478)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Magicavg 67¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	+$75.77	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 33.7¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$569.75
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 67¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$493.97
PU purplegatto	Magicavg 66.5¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$168.32	69% 2574-1166 (3740)
RJ RJW1CTR	Kingsavg 33¢	$4.7K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	47% 116-129 (245)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Kingsavg 32¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$875	62% 1003-623 (1626)
SN Sniper85	Magicavg 69¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$200	— 2-3 (5)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Kingsavg 24¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$781.44	1% 1-150 (151)
FR frohp5CTR	Kingsavg 27.3¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$887.47	60% 1218-803 (2021)
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Magicavg 73.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$32.39	22% 16-56 (72)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 34.4¢	$815.49	$1.1K	+$311.65
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 73.4¢	$1.2K	$863.58	-$344.04
OJ ojgARB<$100	Magicavg 80.6¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$188.81	41% 109-155 (264)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 80.6¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$344.01
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 31.5¢	$703.54	$858.74	+$155.2

Multicoloured-Serf

Magic

Invested

$42,018.88

Value

$46.4K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

47%

500-559 (1059)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$16,123.47

Value

$15.9K

PnL

-$184.19

Record

56%

3823-2988 (6811)

Both legs:

Magic$10,370.4866.6¢-$172.98

Kings$5,752.9934.6¢-$11.21

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$20,573.08

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Magic$8,194.0567.8¢$-1.3K

Kings$7,318.336.8¢-$67.77

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$10,787.72

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$34.8

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Both legs:

Magic$8,435.967.8¢-$289.44

Kings$2,351.8230.3¢+$324.24

takeormakeARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$10,798.83

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$882.82

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Magic$7,758.4967.1¢$-1.5K

Kings$3,040.3538.3¢+$569.95

RN1ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$8,930.97

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$526.5

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Magic$6,336.0966.6¢$-1.2K

Kings$2,594.8827.6¢+$1.7K

NS13

Magic

Invested

$7,714

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$921.07

Record

—

0-1 (1)

VeryLucky888

Magic

Invested

$10,365.15

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

fantasy7788CTR

Kings

Invested

$9,000

Value

$7.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

42%

102-141 (243)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$5,567.35

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$380.31

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$5,302.97

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$264.92

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Magic$4,417.1661.4¢-$566.54

Kings$885.8134.7¢+$301.62

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Kings

Invested

$4,177.08

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$307.14

Record

51%

710-691 (1401)

hi774c

Magic

Invested

$4,014

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$413.21

Record

37-423 (460)

henryttokARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$5,515.18

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$133.29

Record

—

11-4 (15)

Both legs:

Magic$2,652.2360.1¢+$104

Kings$1,852.8742¢-$237.29

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Magic

Invested

$4,555.6

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$367.09

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

darkumbreon88

Magic

Invested

$3,612.75

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$527.57

Record

61%

900-578 (1478)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$4,259.09

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$75.77

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Kings$1,528.4833.7¢+$569.75

Magic$2,255.367¢-$493.97

purplegatto

Magic

Invested

$3,768.23

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$168.32

Record

69%

2574-1166 (3740)

RJW1CTR

Kings

Invested

$4,702.13

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

116-129 (245)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Kings

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$875

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

Sniper85

Magic

Invested

$2,300

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$200

Record

—

2-3 (5)

QuentinChenCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,500.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$781.44

Record

1-150 (151)

frohp5CTR

Kings

Invested

$1,333

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$887.47

Record

60%

1218-803 (2021)

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$2,023.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$32.39

Record

22%

16-56 (72)

Both legs:

Kings$815.4934.4¢+$311.65

Magic$1,207.6273.4¢-$344.04

ojgARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$2,156.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$188.81

Record

41%

109-155 (264)

Both legs:

Magic$1,452.5780.6¢-$344.01

Kings$703.5431.5¢+$155.2

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

20 of 36 top traders (56%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMagic 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperMagic 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 71% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 68% · 40

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.