Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors 76ers (57%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Cavaliers

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (64%) · Cavaliers at 43¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 7

76ers57¢Cavaliers43¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

-$97.25

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 42.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers57%

Cavaliers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers8 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares12,568

Combined PnL-$240.67

Cavaliers14 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares20,353

Combined PnL+$143.42

76ers — 36%Cavaliers — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	76ersavg 61.6¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$162.43	48% 7433-8152 (15585)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 42.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18.38	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 42.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$9.3	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
nigiri99	76ersavg 65.5¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$139.11	46% 8687-10361 (19048)
SA SapporoAsahiCTR	Cavaliersavg 41.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$33.79	35% 94-177 (271)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 37.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$133.44	55% 70-58 (128)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cavaliersavg 43.2¢	$820.28	$797.16	-$23.12	60% 4632-3039 (7671)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$785.64	$795	+$9.35	51% 26319-24948 (51267)
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 54.6¢	$569.4	$605.04	+$53.71	51% 4824-4687 (9511)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cavaliersavg 43.2¢	$372.15	$361.62	-$10.53	52% 4959-4511 (9470)
DA darkumbreon88	76ersavg 60.2¢	$253.78	$244.65	-$11.24	64% 2011-1118 (3129)
SE sentrioCTR	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$229.92	$232.66	+$2.74	50% 26091-25752 (51843)
GC GC-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$210	$210	+$0	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
NM NM-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$209.99	$209.99	-$0	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$111.49	$119.95	+$10.39	50% 21358-21635 (42993)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 36.1¢	$92.24	$99.95	+$7.66	48% 7423-7958 (15381)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 36.1¢	$52.99	$61.73	+$8.35
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 59.6¢	$39.25	$38.22	-$0.7
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 50.5¢	$99.66	$82.85	-$23.72	58% 21387-15516 (36903)
CH chongchong37CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$42	$42.5	+$0.5	51% 143-135 (278)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$42	$42	+$1.5	53% 12542-11256 (23798)
PA Pan9X	76ersavg 62.8¢	$143.37	$35.32	-$7.5	54% 10092-8474 (18566)
HE Herdonia<$100	76ersavg 56.6¢	$13.4	$13.73	+$0.33	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 62.5¢	$2.6K	$12.44	+$25.78	48% 61878-66736 (128614)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	76ersavg 59.2¢	$10.2	$9.99	-$0.21	33% 1180-2351 (3531)

Gaditima

76ers

Invested

$5,274.82

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$162.43

Record

48%

7433-8152 (15585)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,567.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,577.03

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$9.3

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$1,578.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$139.11

Record

46%

8687-10361 (19048)

SapporoAsahiCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,328.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$33.79

Record

35%

94-177 (271)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,112.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$133.44

Record

55%

70-58 (128)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$820.28

Value

$797.16

PnL

-$23.12

Record

60%

4632-3039 (7671)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$785.64

Value

$795

PnL

+$9.35

Record

51%

26319-24948 (51267)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$569.4

Value

$605.04

PnL

+$53.71

Record

51%

4824-4687 (9511)

takeormakeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$372.15

Value

$361.62

PnL

-$10.53

Record

52%

4959-4511 (9470)

darkumbreon88

76ers

Invested

$253.78

Value

$244.65

PnL

-$11.24

Record

64%

2011-1118 (3129)

sentrioCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$229.92

Value

$232.66

PnL

+$2.74

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

GC-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$210

Value

$210

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

NM-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$209.99

Value

$209.99

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$111.49

Value

$119.95

PnL

+$10.39

Record

50%

21358-21635 (42993)

OddstormARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$92.24

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$7.66

Record

48%

7423-7958 (15381)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$52.9936.1¢+$8.35

76ers$39.2559.6¢-$0.7

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$99.66

Value

$82.85

PnL

-$23.72

Record

58%

21387-15516 (36903)

chongchong37CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$42

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

143-135 (278)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

12542-11256 (23798)

Pan9X

76ers

Invested

$143.37

Value

$35.32

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

10092-8474 (18566)

Herdonia<$100

76ers

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$2,565.2

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$25.78

Record

48%

61878-66736 (128614)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.21

Record

33%

1180-2351 (3531)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.