Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (45%) · Colts at 53¢ · $414K held · ends Nov 8

Cowboys48¢Colts52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 45%

Total Value

$413.6K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys48%

Colts53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys11 traders

Total Value$172.5K

Total Shares361,935

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Colts9 traders

Total Value$241.1K

Total Shares459,532

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Cowboys — 55%Colts — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 56% · 9

Aligned

ctrColts 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Cowboysavg 48.4¢	$154.8K	$152.0K	$-2.8K	49% 146-149 (295)
BR BreakTheBank	Coltsavg 52¢	$112.2K	$113.3K	+$1.1K	41% 643-935 (1578)
JU justwins	Coltsavg 50.8¢	$66.9K	$69.1K	+$2.2K	49% 195-202 (397)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Coltsavg 48¢	$480	$52.1K	+$1.5K	49% 507-531 (1038)
nigiri99CTR	Cowboysavg 50¢	$13.4K	$13.3K	-$133.95	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 51¢	$499.59	$3.4K	-$52.26	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
OM omnibus-076daa	Coltsavg 51¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$28.35	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
UB ubetteruuuu	Coltsavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20	48% 214-229 (443)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cowboysavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$14.61	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
AN Anon455CTR	Cowboysavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$17.36	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
AB abc51001	Coltsavg 53¢	$990.81	$981.46	-$9.35	59% 67-47 (114)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 49¢	$460.8	$484.8	+$24	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Cowboysavg 49¢	$492.23	$477.16	-$15.07	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
GC GC-PCTR	Cowboysavg 47.2¢	$256.93	$258.76	+$1.83	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-PCTR	Cowboysavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Cowboysavg 49¢	$144.69	$146.17	+$1.48	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
LI LimousinCTR	Cowboysavg 49¢	$164.37	$81.36	+$0.82	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Coltsavg 47¢	$70.17	$75.39	+$5.23	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
DV dv-pm<$100	Coltsavg 47¢	$70.03	$75.25	+$5.22	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 49.7¢	$10.94	$20.9	-$0.67	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

taylorsversionCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$154,800

Value

$152.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

BreakTheBank

Colts

Invested

$112,235.93

Value

$113.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

justwins

Colts

Invested

$66,939.47

Value

$69.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

49%

195-202 (397)

Multicoloured-Serf

Colts

Invested

$480

Value

$52.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

nigiri99CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$13,394.5

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$133.95

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$499.59

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$52.26

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

omnibus-076daa

Colts

Invested

$2,892.06

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$28.35

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

ubetteruuuu

Colts

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,402.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.61

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

Anon455CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,200.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$17.36

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

abc51001

Colts

Invested

$990.81

Value

$981.46

PnL

-$9.35

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$460.8

Value

$484.8

PnL

+$24

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

SnakeBallCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$492.23

Value

$477.16

PnL

-$15.07

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

GC-PCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$256.93

Value

$258.76

PnL

+$1.83

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-PCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

darkumbreon88CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$144.69

Value

$146.17

PnL

+$1.48

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

LimousinCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$164.37

Value

$81.36

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

BoomLaLa<$100

Colts

Invested

$70.17

Value

$75.39

PnL

+$5.23

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

dv-pm<$100

Colts

Invested

$70.03

Value

$75.25

PnL

+$5.22

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$10.94

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$0.67

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colts

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 56% · 9

Aligned

ctrColts 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.