Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 55¢ · $92K held · ends Nov 8

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.4K

Combined PnL

$166.71

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 17 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.1K

Total Shares97,453

Combined PnL+$558.11

No14 traders

Total Value$39.2K

Total Shares84,565

Combined PnL-$391.4

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 54.8¢	$29.9K	$29.7K	-$154.34	47% 206-230 (436)
HO hovistomaradona	Yesavg 52.8¢	$22.7K	$23.4K	+$712.57	56% 18-14 (32)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 45.8¢	$14.8K	$14.7K	-$86.81	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 47¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$174.62	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
RN1CTR	Noavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$50	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$76.07	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 45¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$38.35	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$29.74	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$58.57	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$17.49	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 45¢	$500	$505.55	+$5.56	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 45¢	$450	$455	+$5	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$76.75	$75.44	-$1.3	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.9¢	$39.23	$39.72	+$0.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.2¢	$37.52	$35.73	-$1.79
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$32.99	$32.79	-$0.2	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$37.63	$31.98	-$5.65	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.69	$8.79	+$0.1	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.19	$7.46	-$0.73	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.68	-$0.12	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$29,881.6

Value

$29.7K

PnL

-$154.34

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

hovistomaradona

Yes

Invested

$22,669.51

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$712.57

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$14,783.01

Value

$14.7K

PnL

-$86.81

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$5,471.44

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$174.62

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

RN1CTR

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$4,281.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$76.07

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$3,563.6

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$38.35

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$2,677.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$29.74

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,874.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$58.57

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,301.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$17.49

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$505.55

PnL

+$5.56

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$450

Value

$455

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$76.75

Value

$75.44

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

No$39.2344.9¢+$0.49

Yes$37.5257.2¢-$1.79

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$32.99

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$37.63

Value

$31.98

PnL

-$5.65

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$8.19

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 17 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.