Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (78%). 9 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 23¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 8

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.4K

Combined PnL

$7.7K

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 22.5¢

-62% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares32,546

Combined PnL+$7.8K

Under9 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares24,034

Combined PnL-$33.01

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 41.3¢	$7.9K	$14.0K	+$6.1K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
BI big8betzCTR	Underavg 63.5¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$146.75	50% 55-55 (110)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 40.2¢	$4.0K	$5.0K	+$915.19	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 57¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$124.16	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 57.3¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	+$29.8	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$0.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$340	$369.75	+$29.75
PU purplegattoCTR	Underavg 56¢	$3.1K	$1.7K	+$15.33	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 56.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$3.07	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 56.9¢	$2.8K	$1.5K	+$22.23	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$335.37	$364.71	+$29.34
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 43.3¢	$818.88	$1.3K	+$503.18	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrio	Overavg 42.7¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	+$17.61	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 56.7¢	$1.7K	$847.49	-$2.5	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 41¢	$1.8K	$766.33	+$44.04	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 42.9¢	$7.3K	$765.87	+$9.7	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 57.9¢	$670.54	$654.08	-$16.46	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 44.2¢	$382.72	$492.65	+$195.43	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$156.25	$250	+$93.75	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$95	$190	+$95
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.5¢	$61.25	$60	-$1.25
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 40¢	$399.99	$174	+$14	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 43¢	$96.5	$91.25	-$5.24	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 59.8¢	$76.54	$58.27	+$5.96	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$132.85	$40.67	+$0.68	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.3¢	$20.12	$20.67	+$0.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$19.82	$20	+$0.13
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$33.11	$39.43	+$6.32	49% 507-531 (1038)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$41.61	$19.46	-$22.14	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 40¢	$5	$2.18	+$0.18	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$7,897.04

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

big8betzCTR

Under

Invested

$6,418.83

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$146.75

Record

50%

55-55 (110)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$4,037.95

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$915.19

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$2,681.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$124.16

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,296.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$29.8

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Under$1,467.557.3¢+$0.05

Over$34040¢+$29.75

purplegattoCTR

Under

Invested

$3,066

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15.33

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,721.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$3.07

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,823.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$22.23

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Under$1,128.3356.9¢-$7.12

Over$335.3740¢+$29.34

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$818.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$503.18

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$2,512.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$17.61

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,746.82

Value

$847.49

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$1,761.68

Value

$766.33

PnL

+$44.04

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$7,335.2

Value

$765.87

PnL

+$9.7

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$670.54

Value

$654.08

PnL

-$16.46

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$382.72

Value

$492.65

PnL

+$195.43

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$156.25

Value

$250

PnL

+$93.75

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Over$9538¢+$95

Under$61.2524.5¢-$1.25

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$399.99

Value

$174

PnL

+$14

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$96.5

Value

$91.25

PnL

-$5.24

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.54

Value

$58.27

PnL

+$5.96

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ghorrockARB<$100

Over

Invested

$132.85

Value

$40.67

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Both legs:

Over$20.1242.3¢+$0.55

Under$19.8256¢+$0.13

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.11

Value

$39.43

PnL

+$6.32

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.61

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$22.14

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.