Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,308

Combined PnL+$190.76

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,930

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 39¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$130.7	32% 742-1577 (2319)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 59¢	$855.9	$834.53	-$21.36	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 56.6¢	$2.6K	$776.25	$-1.8K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 97¢	$200	$205.15	+$5.15	77% 3443-1052 (4495)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 97¢	$200	$205.15	+$5.15	63% 1200-693 (1893)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 59¢	$190.17	$185.33	-$4.83	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 59¢	$147.53	$146.06	-$1.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 61¢	$122	$115	-$7	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
RN1<$100	Overavg 42¢	$51.73	$99.96	+$48.23	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 61¢	$122.26	$82.03	-$89.8	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 59.2¢	$117.64	$81.91	-$35.73	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.2¢	$92.68	$57.14	-$35.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$24.96	$24.77	-$0.2
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 59¢	$35.98	$37.5	+$1.52	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$3.08	+$0.08	52% 7504-6793 (14297)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 59¢	$944	$0.8	-$943.2	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 60.3¢	$924.5	$0.69	-$831.08	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$22.14	$0.03	-$22.11	59% 46920-33177 (80097)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,456.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$130.7

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$855.9

Value

$834.53

PnL

-$21.36

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$2,584.36

Value

$776.25

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$205.15

PnL

+$5.15

Record

77%

3443-1052 (4495)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$205.15

PnL

+$5.15

Record

63%

1200-693 (1893)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$190.17

Value

$185.33

PnL

-$4.83

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$147.53

Value

$146.06

PnL

-$1.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$122

Value

$115

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$51.73

Value

$99.96

PnL

+$48.23

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$122.26

Value

$82.03

PnL

-$89.8

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$117.64

Value

$81.91

PnL

-$35.73

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$92.6859.2¢-$35.53

Over$24.9664¢-$0.2

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$35.98

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$1.52

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$944

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$943.2

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$924.5

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$831.08

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.14

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$22.11

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.