Will FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win on 2026-11-02?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$271.18

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 99.5¢

+30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,814

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$395.14

Total Shares15,877

Combined PnL-$780.18

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 90.8¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$231.21	61% 903-588 (1491)
RN1	Noavg 42¢	$284.04	$660.43	+$376.39	54% 58805-51089 (109894)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Noavg 95.1¢	$592.06	$607.15	+$15.72	82% 73-16 (89)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 50.2¢	$432.56	$507.22	+$74.66	50% 27053-26978 (54031)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51.6¢	$199.87	$378.21	+$178.34	51% 23180-22031 (45211)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$617.48	$239.03	-$378.45	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 44.3¢	$61.61	$138.91	+$74.04	54% 1254-1050 (2304)
tradecraft	Noavg 48.1¢	$79.53	$130.59	+$51.06	51% 6198-5941 (12139)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 51¢	$49.97	$84.18	+$34.21	58% 44366-32277 (76643)
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$215.88	$80.93	-$135.66	57% 11782-8859 (20641)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$201.91	$49.55	-$152.33
└ No leg	Noavg 44.5¢	$13.97	$31.38	+$16.67
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$210.88	$79.04	-$130.21	50% 20079-20419 (40498)
LR lryyyCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$100.23	$39.79	-$59.62	47% 9029-10161 (19190)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 48¢	$10.29	$20.89	+$10.61	74% 2339-811 (3150)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Yesavg 12.3¢	$103.93	$20.1	-$83.83	48% 5160-5665 (10825)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 51¢	$5.61	$10.73	+$5.12	46% 9377-11133 (20510)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$18.48	$8	-$10.48	49% 2613-2674 (5287)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$81.44	$4.74	-$91.16	48% 6072-6501 (12573)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$24.7	$3.19	-$21.55	51% 7230-6996 (14226)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$1.92	$1.01	-$0.91	45% 13461-16377 (29838)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$4.18	$0.21	-$3.97	51% 11581-10970 (22551)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$3,078.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$231.21

Record

61%

903-588 (1491)

RN1

Invested

$284.04

Value

$660.43

PnL

+$376.39

Record

54%

58805-51089 (109894)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Invested

$592.06

Value

$607.15

PnL

+$15.72

Record

82%

73-16 (89)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$432.56

Value

$507.22

PnL

+$74.66

Record

50%

27053-26978 (54031)

Flaznorp

Invested

$199.87

Value

$378.21

PnL

+$178.34

Record

51%

23180-22031 (45211)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$617.48

Value

$239.03

PnL

-$378.45

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

lonmi2511

Invested

$61.61

Value

$138.91

PnL

+$74.04

Record

54%

1254-1050 (2304)

tradecraft

Invested

$79.53

Value

$130.59

PnL

+$51.06

Record

51%

6198-5941 (12139)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$49.97

Value

$84.18

PnL

+$34.21

Record

58%

44366-32277 (76643)

poshposhARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$215.88

Value

$80.93

PnL

-$135.66

Record

57%

11782-8859 (20641)

Both legs:

Yes$201.9110¢-$152.33

No$13.9744.5¢+$16.67

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.88

Value

$79.04

PnL

-$130.21

Record

50%

20079-20419 (40498)

lryyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.23

Value

$39.79

PnL

-$59.62

Record

47%

9029-10161 (19190)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$20.89

PnL

+$10.61

Record

74%

2339-811 (3150)

SlickRick123CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.93

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$83.83

Record

48%

5160-5665 (10825)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$5.61

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$5.12

Record

46%

9377-11133 (20510)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.48

Value

PnL

-$10.48

Record

49%

2613-2674 (5287)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.44

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$91.16

Record

48%

6072-6501 (12573)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.7

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$21.55

Record

51%

7230-6996 (14226)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.91

Record

45%

13461-16377 (29838)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$3.97

Record

51%

11581-10970 (22551)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.