Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will BK Hacken win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares20,866

Combined PnL+$8.1K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares18,067

Combined PnL$-6.9K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 38.7¢	$2.2K	$5.8K	+$3.6K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 45.1¢	$4.7K	$5.8K	+$1.1K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
NB nb1985CTR	Yesavg 65.9¢	$15.2K	$4.5K	$-5.5K	51% 33-32 (65)
LooksMaxing101	Noavg 38.3¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	+$860.95	51% 900-866 (1766)
NM NM-P	Noavg 34.4¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	+$702.87	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P	Noavg 34.4¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	+$702.42	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 34¢	$445.92	$1.3K	+$864.95	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 34¢	$800	$564	+$292	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 60.9¢	$292.16	$278.53	-$13.63	62% 2044-1228 (3272)
SE sentrio	Noavg 42¢	$237.9	$236.43	-$1.47	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FI FinalOrderCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$103.45	$95.16	-$4.84	46% 238-277 (515)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13.2	$23.99	+$10.79	47% 6203-6908 (13111)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 55¢	$20.68	$22	+$1.32	48% 39763-42635 (82398)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$23.5	$14.75	-$8.75	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$1.18	$-1.4K	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3	$0.07	-$2.92	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$2.26	$0	-$2.26	71% 18400-7571 (25971)

RN1

Invested

$2,245.79

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,691.58

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

nb1985CTR

Yes

Invested

$15,182.61

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

51%

33-32 (65)

LooksMaxing101

Invested

$2,669.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$860.95

Record

51%

900-866 (1766)

NM-P

Invested

$1,948.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$702.87

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P

Invested

$1,947.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$702.42

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$445.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$864.95

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$800

Value

$564

PnL

+$292

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$292.16

Value

$278.53

PnL

-$13.63

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

sentrio

Invested

$237.9

Value

$236.43

PnL

-$1.47

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

FinalOrderCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.45

Value

$95.16

PnL

-$4.84

Record

46%

238-277 (515)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$10.79

Record

47%

6203-6908 (13111)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$22

PnL

+$1.32

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.5

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,360.74

Value

$1.18

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.92

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

PnL

-$2.26

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.