Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FC Porto vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 49¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 4

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

-$86.91

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,290

Combined PnL-$95.97

Over6 traders

Total Value$660.34

Total Shares1,176

Combined PnL+$9.05

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$15.82	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$47.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$31.71
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$113.34	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$43.27	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$914.24	$909.68	-$4.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$709.68	$670.97	-$38.71
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$550.07	$555.92	+$5.85	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$406.51	$406.65	+$0.14	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51¢	$440.49	$279.74	+$7.25	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 54¢	$261.16	$254.1	-$7.06	64% 1891-1048 (2939)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 47¢	$188	$189.99	+$2	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$152.4	$158.12	+$5.72	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 57.2¢	$128.92	$117.13	-$11.79	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$98.23	$99.28	+$1.05	48% 303-327 (630)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$94	$95	+$1	56% 7722-6185 (13907)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$66.42	$66.88	+$0.46	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$36.25	$35.19	-$1.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$30.17	$31.69	+$1.52
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$52.91	$52.64	-$0.27	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
ReformedxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$27.5	$29.38	+$1.88	51% 859-825 (1684)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$4.79	$4.36	-$0.04	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.6	-$0.15	52% 8576-7821 (16397)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54.9¢	$959.06	$2.42	+$20.85	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.92	$1.94	+$0.02	50% 27765-27630 (55395)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,695.32

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$15.82

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

Both legs:

Over$4,206.0553.1¢-$47.52

Under$2,489.2846.9¢+$31.71

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$3,420.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$113.34

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,623.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$43.27

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Under$914.2447.2¢-$4.56

Over$709.6855¢-$38.71

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$550.07

Value

$555.92

PnL

+$5.85

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$406.51

Value

$406.65

PnL

+$0.14

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$440.49

Value

$279.74

PnL

+$7.25

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$261.16

Value

$254.1

PnL

-$7.06

Record

64%

1891-1048 (2939)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$188

Value

$189.99

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$152.4

Value

$158.12

PnL

+$5.72

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$128.92

Value

$117.13

PnL

-$11.79

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.23

Value

$99.28

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94

Value

$95

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

7722-6185 (13907)

ghorrockARB<$100

Over

Invested

$66.42

Value

$66.88

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Both legs:

Over$36.2553¢-$1.06

Under$30.1746.2¢+$1.52

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.91

Value

$52.64

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ReformedxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.5

Value

$29.38

PnL

+$1.88

Record

51%

859-825 (1684)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8576-7821 (16397)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$959.06

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$20.85

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.