Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-10?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 97¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

$168.11

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 96.9¢

+9% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares17,773

Combined PnL+$350.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$147.09

Total Shares1,438

Combined PnL-$182.31

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Noavg 96.4¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$6.36	27% 12-32 (44)
LI Limousin	Noavg 90.6¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$209.7	25% 224-665 (889)
RN1	Noavg 94.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$13.42	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.1¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$241.25	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 86.1¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$244.27	26% 226-653 (879)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$813.87	$990.2	+$176.32	44% 79-102 (181)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.1¢	$436.95	$500.36	+$63.41
└ No leg	Noavg 65.4¢	$376.92	$489.84	+$112.91
MA MadridTime	Noavg 86¢	$685	$687.84	+$2.84	26% 226-645 (871)
alpheclabs2	Noavg 63.6¢	$259.2	$346.03	+$86.83	46% 79-93 (172)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.6¢	$267.26	$272.02	+$4.76	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
VE Venusian	Noavg 80.9¢	$173.09	$206.4	+$33.31	25% 222-667 (889)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.8¢	$190.32	$187.52	-$2.8	47% 148-167 (315)
machinelearned	Noavg 78.3¢	$166.89	$159.47	-$7.42	36% 363-638 (1001)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$85.91	$91.65	+$5.73	31% 174-392 (566)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 70¢	$35.38	$47.15	+$12.21	5% 10-176 (186)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$29.63	$31.15	+$4.59	51% 251-244 (495)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$201.63	$20.97	-$180.67	3% 11-307 (318)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.73	$8.64	+$0.91	53% 5438-4880 (10318)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$15.3	$3.33	-$11.97	42% 208-286 (494)

pagliacci4

Invested

$4,139.95

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$6.36

Record

27%

12-32 (44)

Limousin

Invested

$3,140.9

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$209.7

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

RN1

Invested

$3,219.9

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$13.42

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,974.94

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$241.25

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,986.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$244.27

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$813.87

Value

$990.2

PnL

+$176.32

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Both legs:

Yes$436.9513.1¢+$63.41

No$376.9265.4¢+$112.91

MadridTime

Invested

$685

Value

$687.84

PnL

+$2.84

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

alpheclabs2

Invested

$259.2

Value

$346.03

PnL

+$86.83

Record

46%

79-93 (172)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$267.26

Value

$272.02

PnL

+$4.76

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Venusian

Invested

$173.09

Value

$206.4

PnL

+$33.31

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

SnakeBall

Invested

$190.32

Value

$187.52

PnL

-$2.8

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

machinelearned

Invested

$166.89

Value

$159.47

PnL

-$7.42

Record

36%

363-638 (1001)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.91

Value

$91.65

PnL

+$5.73

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$35.38

Value

$47.15

PnL

+$12.21

Record

10-176 (186)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.63

Value

$31.15

PnL

+$4.59

Record

51%

251-244 (495)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.63

Value

$20.97

PnL

-$180.67

Record

11-307 (318)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$7.73

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

5438-4880 (10318)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.3

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$11.97

Record

42%

208-286 (494)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.