Will SCU Torreense vs. Sparta Prague end in a draw?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 72¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 11

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$12.4K

Smart Money Entry

27.8¢ → 72¢

+159% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares31,785

Combined PnL+$12.4K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$51.71

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$51.69

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Cypya	Noavg 18¢	$1.8K	$6.6K	+$4.8K	— 1-3 (4)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf	Noavg 44.3¢	$4.3K	$6.5K	+$2.1K	60% 147-97 (244)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Noavg 20.9¢	$1.5K	$4.8K	+$3.3K	54% 80-68 (148)
bot-rapin	Noavg 11.6¢	$555	$1.6K	+$1.6K	100% 33-0 (33)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 41.4¢	$227.75	$363.43	+$135.68	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
KO korda77	Noavg 38.7¢	$148.82	$254.1	+$105.28	86% 36-6 (42)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 44.4¢	$169.28	$251.41	+$82.13	44% 286-362 (648)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 21¢	$49.98	$157.08	+$107.1	12% 17-121 (138)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 38.2¢	$78.4	$135.38	+$56.98	41% 299-433 (732)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 43.2¢	$78.89	$120.43	+$41.54	45% 273-328 (601)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 40.6¢	$66.07	$107.49	+$41.42	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$37.28	$59.05	+$21.77	39% 624-957 (1581)
RL RLWGCTR	Yesavg 66.3¢	$103.4	$51.71	-$51.69	68% 1599-746 (2345)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$27	$43.14	+$16.14	39% 309-489 (798)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 45¢	$18.2	$26.67	+$8.47	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$13.69	$20.66	+$6.97	39% 303-465 (768)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.3	+$0.8	— 2-1 (3)

Cypya

Invested

$1,800

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

—

1-3 (4)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf

Invested

$4,339.32

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Invested

$1,511.06

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

54%

80-68 (148)

bot-rapin

Invested

$555

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

100%

33-0 (33)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$227.75

Value

$363.43

PnL

+$135.68

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

korda77

Invested

$148.82

Value

$254.1

PnL

+$105.28

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$169.28

Value

$251.41

PnL

+$82.13

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$49.98

Value

$157.08

PnL

+$107.1

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$78.4

Value

$135.38

PnL

+$56.98

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$78.89

Value

$120.43

PnL

+$41.54

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$66.07

Value

$107.49

PnL

+$41.42

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$37.28

Value

$59.05

PnL

+$21.77

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

RLWGCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.4

Value

$51.71

PnL

-$51.69

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$43.14

PnL

+$16.14

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$26.67

PnL

+$8.47

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.69

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$6.97

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

BlackMamba08<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.