Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $122 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$121.7

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

1.9¢ → 0.3¢

-87% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$121.7

Total Shares48,678

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

655h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HOG993CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$140	$24.5	-$115.5	— 0-2 (2)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$128.57	$22.5	-$106.07	38% 307-494 (801)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$175.25	$15.77	-$159.48	—
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$175	$15.75	-$159.25	0% 0-347 (347)
BaddieCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$71.03	$12.43	-$58.6	0% 0-53 (53)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$42.86	$7.5	-$35.36	39% 493-786 (1279)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$74.13	$7.04	-$67.09	— 1-11 (12)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$53.92	$7	-$46.91	— 0-3 (3)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$5.7K	$5.95	-$678.29	56% 908-702 (1610)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7	$2.19	-$4.81	0% 0-75 (75)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$3.3K	$0.31	$-1.4K	86% 152-25 (177)
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$2.78	$0.25	-$2.53	18% 52-234 (286)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.27	$0.22	-$0.04	0% 0-147 (147)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.98	$0.09	-$0.89	86% 18-3 (21)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.83	$0.07	-$0.76	— 7-0 (7)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	—
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.43	$0.04	-$0.39	3% 1-34 (35)
debasedCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.05	$0.02	-$0.02	0% 0-258 (258)

HOG993CTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$115.5

Record

—

0-2 (2)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.57

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$106.07

Record

38%

307-494 (801)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.25

Value

$15.77

PnL

-$159.48

Record

—

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$175

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$159.25

Record

0-347 (347)

BaddieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.03

Value

$12.43

PnL

-$58.6

Record

0-53 (53)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.86

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$35.36

Record

39%

493-786 (1279)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.13

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$67.09

Record

—

1-11 (12)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.92

Value

PnL

-$46.91

Record

—

0-3 (3)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,700.96

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$678.29

Record

56%

908-702 (1610)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$4.81

Record

0-75 (75)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,279.9

Value

$0.31

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

86%

152-25 (177)

0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.53

Record

18%

52-234 (286)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.04

Record

0-147 (147)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.89

Record

86%

18-3 (21)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.76

Record

—

7-0 (7)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.39

Record

1-34 (35)

debasedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

0-258 (258)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

655h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.