Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Laura Pigossi

16 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (89%) · Bianca Andreescu at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 18

Bianca Andreescu>99¢Laura Pigossi<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bianca Andreescu

Consensus Traders

Bianca Andreescu 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$734.83

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

16 of 18 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bianca Andreescu100%

Laura Pigossi0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bianca Andreescu16 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares23,394

Combined PnL+$736.63

Laura Pigossi2 traders

Total Value$7.66

Total Shares165

Combined PnL-$1.81

Bianca Andreescu — 89%Laura Pigossi — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Bianca Andreescuavg 96¢	$10.0K	$10.4K	+$390.76	31% 384-854 (1238)
RN1	Bianca Andreescuavg 92.2¢	$5.4K	$5.7K	+$291.21	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
LI LightParadox	Bianca Andreescuavg 93.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$8.01	30% 380-875 (1255)
LI Limousin	Bianca Andreescuavg 94.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$31.66	30% 378-880 (1258)
VE Venusian	Bianca Andreescuavg 93.2¢	$1.3K	$910.96	-$4.23	31% 390-871 (1261)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Laura Pigossiavg 3.9¢	$1.1K	$909.27	-$148.27	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 95.2¢	$498.6	$509.08	+$10.47
└ Laura Pigossi leg	Laura Pigossiavg 3.9¢	$558.94	$400.19	-$158.74
FL Flaznorp	Bianca Andreescuavg 93.1¢	$882.82	$860.21	-$22.61	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
TH thirdt1me	Bianca Andreescuavg 92.7¢	$662.43	$692.44	+$30.01	42% 114-157 (271)
VeryLucky888	Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢	$546	$566.4	+$20.4	52% 463-433 (896)
TH thestingsnake	Bianca Andreescuavg 91.4¢	$568.45	$404.38	+$28.37	25% 128-376 (504)
38 38791873984189	Bianca Andreescuavg 97.5¢	$408.71	$393.66	+$16.8	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bianca Andreescuavg 92.9¢	$357.08	$356.83	-$0.25	56% 3856-3022 (6878)
Basquetipster	Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢	$239.07	$248	+$8.93	5% 4-78 (82)
SE sentrio<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 97¢	$26.95	$27.09	+$0.14	38% 351-584 (935)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢	$18.2	$18.88	+$0.68	49% 673-714 (1387)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.44	+$0.34	32% 295-621 (916)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Laura Pigossiavg 6¢	$9	$7.65	-$1.35	40% 530-798 (1328)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.43	-$0.27	23% 143-492 (635)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Laura Pigossiavg 3.2¢	$0.46	$0.01	-$0.46	28% 161-409 (570)

MadridTime

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$10,022.43

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$390.76

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

RN1

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$5,368.17

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$291.21

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

LightParadox

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,538.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.01

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

Limousin

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,154.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.66

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

Venusian

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,278.06

Value

$910.96

PnL

-$4.23

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$1,057.54

Value

$909.27

PnL

-$148.27

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$498.695.2¢+$10.47

Laura Pigossi$558.943.9¢-$158.74

Flaznorp

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$882.82

Value

$860.21

PnL

-$22.61

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

thirdt1me

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$662.43

Value

$692.44

PnL

+$30.01

Record

42%

114-157 (271)

VeryLucky888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$546

Value

$566.4

PnL

+$20.4

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

thestingsnake

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$568.45

Value

$404.38

PnL

+$28.37

Record

25%

128-376 (504)

38791873984189

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$408.71

Value

$393.66

PnL

+$16.8

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$357.08

Value

$356.83

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

3856-3022 (6878)

Basquetipster

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$239.07

Value

$248

PnL

+$8.93

Record

4-78 (82)

sentrio<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$26.95

Value

$27.09

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

Pan9X<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.88

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

673-714 (1387)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$0.34

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Laura Pigossi

Invested

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$1.35

Record

40%

530-798 (1328)

BillBenter2026<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.27

Record

23%

143-492 (635)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.46

Record

28%

161-409 (570)

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

16 of 18 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bianca Andreescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.