WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula

13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Coco Gauff (52%) · Coco Gauff at 60¢ · $152K held · ends Nov 15

Coco Gauff60¢Jessica Pegula40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coco Gauff

Consensus Traders

Coco Gauff 52%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$152.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralCoco Gauff at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coco Gauff

13 of 25 top traders (52%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Coco Gauff60%

Jessica Pegula41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jessica Pegula12 traders

Total Value$57.9K

Total Shares138,702

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Coco Gauff13 traders

Total Value$75.1K

Total Shares121,439

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Jessica Pegula — 48%Coco Gauff — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.7¢	$54.1K	$52.6K	$-1.6K	48% 124-133 (257)
RN1	Coco Gauffavg 58.3¢	$30.0K	$28.0K	$-2.0K	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Coco Gauffavg 58.6¢	$23.4K	$21.8K	$-1.6K	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
65 6512395314597884	Coco Gauffavg 57.4¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$114.19	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Coco Gauffavg 56¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$280.92	53% 682-594 (1276)
FL Flaznorp	Coco Gauffavg 58.1¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$117.02	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 61.4¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$390.84	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 61.4¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$417.13
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$26.29
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$3.82	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$5.42
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 59.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.24
cs2.quant	Coco Gauffavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$216.97	57% 114-85 (199)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$125.45	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.88
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 60¢	$1.0K	$901.82	-$109.57
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 57.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$10.71	53% 6779-5930 (12709)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 57.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$49
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.9¢	$686.77	$648.48	-$38.29
SE sentrio	Coco Gauffavg 58.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$154	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$57.37	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 57.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$35.11	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 57.5¢	$900.33	$931.84	+$31.51
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.2¢	$557.92	$561.52	+$3.6
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 57.7¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$8.03	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 57.7¢	$1.1K	$980.66	-$75.13
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.2¢	$355.06	$411.05	+$67.1
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 41.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$55.37	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 54.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$76.12	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 54.3¢	$800.99	$922.17	+$121.18
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.3¢	$399.21	$354.16	-$45.05
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.7¢	$1.7K	$919.67	-$10.53	53% 851-751 (1602)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.7¢	$607.82	$618.84	+$17.59
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 59.2¢	$326.62	$300.83	-$28.11
GC GC-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$801.87	$792.69	-$9.18	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 58¢	$775	$792.5	+$17.5	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 58¢	$580	$585	+$5
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 39¢	$195	$207.5	+$12.5
AC Accomplished-Framework	Coco Gauffavg 53.1¢	$711.68	$770.74	+$59.06	46% 295-343 (638)
NM NM-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$603.88	$610.9	+$7.02	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 64.9¢	$656.94	$599.1	-$57.84	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 64.9¢	$440.93	$370.53	-$70.4
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$216.01	$228.57	+$12.56
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.2¢	$493.83	$448.15	-$41.48	60% 4596-3103 (7699)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$558.38	$217.5	-$1.4	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

robustmstCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$54,143.32

Value

$52.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

124-133 (257)

RN1

Coco Gauff

Invested

$30,023.98

Value

$28.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

ferrariChampions2026

Coco Gauff

Invested

$23,416.43

Value

$21.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

6512395314597884

Coco Gauff

Invested

$9,995.78

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$114.19

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Coco Gauff

Invested

$4,494.65

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$280.92

Record

53%

682-594 (1276)

Flaznorp

Coco Gauff

Invested

$4,584.61

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$117.02

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

LimousinARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$4,845.16

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$390.84

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$3,689.9961.4¢-$417.13

Jessica Pegula$1,155.1744.5¢+$26.29

MadridTimeARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$3,167.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$3.82

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$1,735.1340.6¢-$5.42

Coco Gauff$1,431.959.1¢+$9.24

cs2.quant

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,603.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$216.97

Record

57%

114-85 (199)

VenusianARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$2,541.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$125.45

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$1,530.5347¢-$15.88

Coco Gauff$1,011.3960¢-$109.57

EulhunterARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,388.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$10.71

Record

53%

6779-5930 (12709)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$1,701.7857.8¢+$49

Jessica Pegula$686.7742.9¢-$38.29

sentrio

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,313.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$154

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,759.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$57.37

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$1,458.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$35.11

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$900.3357.5¢+$31.51

Jessica Pegula$557.9240.2¢+$3.6

38791873984189ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,073.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8.03

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$1,058.5157.7¢-$75.13

Jessica Pegula$355.0640.2¢+$67.1

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,245.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$55.37

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$1,200.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$76.12

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$800.9954.3¢+$121.18

Jessica Pegula$399.2142.3¢-$45.05

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,724.91

Value

$919.67

PnL

-$10.53

Record

53%

851-751 (1602)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$607.8244.7¢+$17.59

Coco Gauff$326.6259.2¢-$28.11

GC-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$801.87

Value

$792.69

PnL

-$9.18

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$775

Value

$792.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$58058¢+$5

Jessica Pegula$19539¢+$12.5

Accomplished-Framework

Coco Gauff

Invested

$711.68

Value

$770.74

PnL

+$59.06

Record

46%

295-343 (638)

NM-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$603.88

Value

$610.9

PnL

+$7.02

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$656.94

Value

$599.1

PnL

-$57.84

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$440.9364.9¢-$70.4

Jessica Pegula$216.0143¢+$12.56

thestingsnakeCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$493.83

Value

$448.15

PnL

-$41.48

Record

60%

4596-3103 (7699)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$558.38

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralCoco Gauff at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Coco Gauff

13 of 25 top traders (52%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coco Gauff wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.