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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)46% (412–492, n=904)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (875–459, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$85K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #650PM monthly #1PM monthly #25
Sides with the consensus58% (15 of 26 open)76% (84 of 110 open)70% (30 of 43 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicWeather ±0 pts, n=772—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won63% of 1348 at avg 63¢, ROI +5%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢35% (won 1% of 475)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢2% (won 45% of 29)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢3% (won 79% of 42)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up59% (won 100% of 802)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.5M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $1.3M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $265KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $295KNo $73K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $43KYes $31K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $52KNo $831
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $58Yes $4.3K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $185KYes $2.9M
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $55KYes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $125No $3.2K