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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | lava-lava | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4521–3297, n=7818) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 43% (438–580, n=1018) | 47% (14133–15621, n=29754) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.8M | $7.9M | $1.3M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #67 | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #52 | PM monthly #28 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 65% (11 of 17 open) | 86% (24 of 28 open) | 58% (50 of 86 open) | 65% (36 of 55 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=134 | — | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 41% of 880 at avg 39¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1183) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 48% (won 8% of 421) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 45% of 1724) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 16% (won 38% of 140) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2055) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 15% (won 70% of 131) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2092) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 21% (won 96% of 188) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | lava-lava | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | No $63K | Yes $9.7K | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $48K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $70 | — | No $8.6K | — |
| Will NEC win on 2026-11-05? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.2K | — | — | No $4.3K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $52K | — | Yes $4.5K | — |
| Trabzonspor vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $2.0K | — | — | Over $3.0K |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $50 | Yes $354 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $40 | — | Yes $181 | — |