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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighwhosay
Record (consensus markets)47% (64–71, n=135)75% (744–249, n=993)45% (200–248, n=448)82% (23–5, n=28)
Consensus PnL-$420K$74K$28K$8.3K
Tracked asPM monthly #10PM monthly #14PM monthly #44PM monthly #559
Sides with the consensus56% (5 of 9 open)69% (93 of 134 open)72% (18 of 25 open)50% (2 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +42 pts n=29, ROI +39%
  • Tennis +35 pts n=17, ROI +37%
Weakest topic———Esports −6 pts, n=11
Settled positions, side won97% of 72 at avg 60¢, ROI +36%52% of 211 at avg 50¢, ROI +3%100% of 136 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%73% of 26 at avg 65¢, ROI +9%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 50% of 2)31% (won 9% of 66)6% (won 100% of 8)4% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 95% of 19)27% (won 45% of 56)38% (won 100% of 51)23% (won 33% of 6)
Entries 50–70¢46% (won 100% of 33)13% (won 68% of 28)50% (won 100% of 68)31% (won 88% of 8)
Entries 70¢ and up25% (won 100% of 18)29% (won 97% of 61)7% (won 100% of 9)42% (won 91% of 11)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighwhosay
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Borna Gojo vs Ugo Humbert
same side · consensus Ugo Humbert
Ugo Humbert $3.6KUgo Humbert $2.6KUgo Humbert $10K—
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Magic $53K—Jazz $6.0K—
Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Sport Lisboa e Benfica
—Sport Lisboa e Benfica $11K—FK Austria Wien $1
Spread: Lakers (-13.5)
opposite sides · consensus Lakers
—Bucks $621Lakers $9.9K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
opposite sides · consensus Casper Ruud
—Alexander Shevchenko $1.0KCasper Ruud $5.3K—
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $6.2K—Under $6
Spread: Lakers (-12.5)
opposite sides · consensus Lakers
—Bucks $353Lakers $3.4K—
WTA Finals, Group B: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova
opposite sides · consensus Elina Svitolina
—Karolina Muchova $2.3KElina Svitolina $447—
Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston
opposite sides · consensus Hugo Gaston
—Hugo Gaston $1.1KMatteo Martineau $519—
Sopo: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Jazmin Ortenzi
opposite sides · consensus Andrea Lazaro Garcia
—Jazmin Ortenzi $170Andrea Lazaro Garcia $323—
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $119—Yes $277
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva
same side · consensus Aryna Sabalenka
—Aryna Sabalenka $1.0KAryna Sabalenka $5.1K—
Lima: Santiago De La Fuente vs Max Alcala Gurri
same side · consensus Max Alcala Gurri
—Max Alcala Gurri $213Max Alcala Gurri $4.6K—
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Albany Great Danes
same side · consensus Dartmouth Big Green
Dartmouth Big Green $1.9KDartmouth Big Green $415——
Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Carole Monnet
same side · consensus Polona Hercog
—Polona Hercog $1.0KPolona Hercog $503—
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
same side · consensus Trail Blazers
—Trail Blazers $10Trail Blazers $350—
Vikings vs. Packers
same side · consensus Vikings
Vikings $90Vikings $6——