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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241beachboy4BreakTheBankhaveagoodday
Record (consensus markets)no settled marketno settled market45% (546–663, n=1209)37% (1397–2363, n=3760)
Consensus PnL——$11.2M$20K
Tracked as——PM monthly #2PM monthly #132
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus position67% (34 of 51 open)83% (256 of 309 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———Elections −3 pts, n=555
Settled positions, side won——97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%61% of 2399 at avg 63¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢——10% (won 81% of 57)32% (won 1% of 760)
Entries 30–50¢——36% (won 98% of 201)4% (won 42% of 101)
Entries 50–70¢——35% (won 99% of 196)7% (won 63% of 156)
Entries 70¢ and up——19% (won 100% of 109)58% (won 96% of 1382)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241beachboy4BreakTheBankhaveagoodday
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $15KNo $32
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $9.5KNo $341
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $8.8KNo $387
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $3.7KNo $28
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3.1KNo $399
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $56No $1.0K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $602No $270
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $311No $282
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $197No $40
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
same side · consensus No
——No $327KNo $255
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $122KNo $303
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
——No $12KNo $74
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $11KNo $580
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $7.6KNo $21
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $6.8KNo $107
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $3.4KNo $130
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
——No $795No $242