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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8BreakTheBankndb1RN1
Record (consensus markets)43% (86–114, n=200)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (875–459, n=1334)47% (14288–15920, n=30208)
Consensus PnL$24K$11.0M$4.1M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #962PM monthly #1PM monthly #24PM monthly #18 + pinned
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position75% (83 of 110 open)70% (30 of 43 open)47% (18 of 38 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicEsports −15 pts, n=44—NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won42% of 181 at avg 45¢, ROI +6%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢24% (won 9% of 44)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)10% (won 57% of 2606)
Entries 30–50¢33% (won 32% of 60)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 40% of 253)22% (won 94% of 5665)
Entries 50–70¢27% (won 60% of 48)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 310)36% (won 99% of 9185)
Entries 70¢ and up16% (won 83% of 29)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 544)32% (won 100% of 8345)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8BreakTheBankndb1RN1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.5M—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $1.3M—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $265KYes $544K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $295KNo $73K—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $43KYes $23K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $52KNo $831—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $185KYes $2.9M—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $55KYes $12K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $125No $3.2K—